The Weekly Grapevine
It's hard to tell from the on track performance quite what BMW are planning for 2002 – at least, casual observers in Barcelona have not seen the new engine appear to do anything extraordinary. Except run, that is.
The engine was given a few careful laps – just enough to prove the concept, and establish that the design is on track. Now the work really begins back at the factory: stripping down and examining every component, analysing the data, and providing a first refinement of the original mapping derived from dyno testing.
It did not go unnoticed in the pitlane that BMW had brought along their new toy to play with. The careful observer would then also have discovered that a lot of people were paying attention to the start of the braking zone at the end of the pit straight: simple sound analysis on the engine at peak revs tells how fast it's turning over. Though all they discovered, as it turns out it, was that this engine was restricted to between 17,500 then 18,000 rpm for this test...
That's nothing like what it will be doing next year, of course. On the dyno, one of BMW's tests involved destroying an engine by running it continuously at its theoretical "qualifying limit" of 19,250 rpm: it ran for long enough to cover the equivalent of a qualifying lap at Monza. Another test requires running the engine from stationary to a given rev limit – raising the limit by 100rpm each time – before stripping the engine down to check over the components. The test unit destroyed itself attempting to reach 19,500rpm. Impressive results, but meaningless unless the design can withstand running in a real car.
By the time BMW and Williams arrive in Australia, setbacks permitting, this engine should be capable of peaking at 19,000 rpm during the race, and around 19,250 for qualifying. At Barcelona, there were rumours the engine is going to develop over 900bhp next year – though BMW's expectations are a far more conservative 860. Which is impressive, considering Ferrari are looking at just under 850, and best guesses at Ilmor's new design for Mercedes are lower again.
Of course, that's only half the picture. Whilst a powerful engine can make a mediocre chassis look good, the combination just isn't enough to win a modern Championship. Williams work on their new chassis won't demonstrate the real fruit of their efforts until the revised car hits the road in January – though running the new engine so early makes it easier to cater to its needs. Focus, at least for the start of the season, is on ensuring the car evolves smoothly, concentrating on achieving greater reliability, without sacrificing performance.
However, the important thing from this test was the reaction of the test team. They had expectations, which seem to have been met. Despite being careful to cover over at least two teething issues, though these didn't seem very serious, their positive attitude seems a pretty solid indication that things have gone pretty well.
With the economic climate looking set for a significant downturn, Toyota have taken steps to ensure their future does not include losing face by being unable to live up to their commitments: they have both three and five year plans for their motorsport commitments, catering for all foreseeable situations.
Toyota see Formula One as the big challenge: it has good world-wide exposure, and doing well in the medium term is an important part of their marketing strategy. They have already spent a small fortune building the design team, engine and chassis to test this year, with unofficial figures topping 120 million US dollars. That's a pretty respectable spend on research by anyone's standards, outside of Formula One; but the reality shows that money has produced a car which runs around three to five seconds off the pace...
Of course, that was only the first stab, and next year's effort is going to be a lot better, particularly with Gustav Brunner penning the car. The ex-Minardi star designer knows a trick or two about fast cars, and has been impressing already: there is a whole new car for 2002, based on concepts he could not afford to explore at Minardi. That said, even Toyota's designs are cheap by Formula One standards, as they are still committed to a minimum half billion dollar spend over five years – though they're already looking set to spend it in three – in order to play effectively with the big boys.
In theory, Toyota are hoping to find solid sponsorship to offset a good chunk of their outlay. Whilst there are definitely some deals in the pipeline, the ultimate value of the cash influx is an unknown, except that they cannot command the same price per square inch as their rivals. Few sponsors are prepared to spend really serious money on a complete unknown doing well against the likes of the established front runners.
So, Toyota are prepared to fund the project themselves, if need be. Which is why they found themselves asking, how can they justify running two separate engine programs, just for one market – even if it's as important as the USA? Toyota has committed to entering the Indy Racing League in 2003, and currently is involved in the CART series.
For some time, Toyota has been pressing CART to change the engine rules, looking for a move from the current 2.65 litre, turbocharged format, to 3.5 litres, normally aspirated. Which, give or take a rev limiter, is what the Indy Racing League run. Finally, push came to shove, and Toyota announced that 2002 would be their final year in CART unless the format changed.
The CART board responded by announcing an engine change to match the IRL format for 2003 - a decision which has upset just about all parties. Ford are not ready to move that quickly, particularly as they see little benefit from participating in the IRL when they have such a strong commitment to Formula One and CART. Honda are really put-out. Even if they had time to produce a competitive engine for 2003, they see the move as a technological dumbing down – quite apart from which, they already have normally aspirated commitment in Formula One – so they are prepared to pull out of CART altogether. In fact, it almost seems too good to be true: F1 is proving expensive, and this would free up considerable funding for the project.
Even Toyota were taken aback: their 2003 program is targeted at Indy; to remain in CART, they would have to run a parallel development, pushing expenses through the roof. They are still considering the merits of remaining with the series, but are not yet making any promises. The focus remains: Formula One is top of the priority list.
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