Just how good is Juan Pablo Montoya? The Colombian rookie has made an immediate impression in Formula One, winning one race and scoring three pole positions. But most people are wondering how far can he go in his F1 career. Barry Kalb tries to find the answer

How good is Juan Pablo Montoya?

It's certainly a hot topic of conversation. Michael Schumacher, in what was possibly a bit of gamesmanship, has pooh-poohed Montoya's performance in this, the Colombian's rookie Formula One year. Montoya's skill, and the question of whether he is likely to be the next great driver, have been the subject of fast and furious (and often silly) debate in F1 chat rooms.

The answers will eventually come from Montoya himself. So far, he shows every sign of being a future World Champion. The mark of a great driver, though, is not only the ability to wring the best out of a competitive car, consistently enough to become champion, but also to score the occasional win, pole and fastest lap even with a lesser vehicle - abilities shown by Schumacher, Ayrton Senna and Stirling Moss, to name a few. In trying to define Montoya's future, it's worth taking a look at the careers of the top-ranked drivers who came before him.

Montoya's first season has been notable by any standards. In his first 16 F1 races, he has scored one win, two second places, three poles, three fastest laps. He has led eight of those 16 races, and in most cases he put himself in the lead through sheer driving skill, not by default. He is already tied for 48th place (with Richie Ginther and Eddie Irvine) in the all-time count of races led - not bad for a rookie.

Despite this performance, Schumacher recently downplayed Montoya's accomplishments. "The revelations of the season are (Nick) Heidfeld, (Kimi) Raikkonen, my brother (Ralf)," Schumacher told Gazzetta dello Sport. "Not Montoya, he has not done enough."

Is Schumacher right, or possibly just a bit concerned about a new rival? Let's take a look at the great and near-great drivers of the past 40 years.

Most of the great drivers score wins in their first or second full season of racing, and those who failed to score an early win were primarily held back by their cars, not their abilities. The Williams of Nigel Mansell and Riccardo Patrese won ten of 16 races in 1992; Schumacher, in his first full season that year, won at Spa in an out-classed Benetton, and came third in the Championship, only three points behind Patrese, and three points ahead of Senna. The Brazilian, who drove a totally uncompetitive Toleman in his first season, 1984, won three races in a Lotus a year later. Alain Prost failed to win in a McLaren in 1980, but scored three victories in 1981 in a Renault. Jackie Stewart drove his BRM to one victory in his first season, 1965.

It took Jim Clark until his third season, 1962, to win a race, but his Lotus was totally outclassed in 1960 and '61. Niki Lauda didn't win until his third full season, 1974, when he joined Ferrari and finally had a competitive car to work with. So far, Montoya, with that win in his rookie year, is in pretty heady company. A flying start is one thing, however. Staying power is another. The records of two other recent drivers are instructive.

Damon Hill drove his first full season in 1993, in what was still the dominant Williams. He won three races that rookie year, and finished third in the Championship, behind Prost and Senna. Over the next three seasons, with Williams maintaining its excellence, he amassed one of the most remarkable records in Formula One history, capping it with the Championship in 1996. If nobody ranks Hill among the all-time greats, nobody disputes that he took a great car during those four years and drove the hell out of it. After leaving Williams, however, he drove three more lackluster seasons in inferior cars, and finished his career in something close to disgrace.

Jacques Villeneuve, like Montoya, came straight from great success in American open-wheel racing, and immediately distinguished himself in Formula One. In his first year, 1996, alongside Hill at Williams, he won four races and ended the Championship in second place behind his teammate. The following year, after a season-long battle with Schumacher, he ended up with seven victories and the Championship. Like Hill, Villeneuve began his career by racking up one of the best records ever seen.

And since then? Villeneuve has not so much as led a single race since 1997. No poles, no fastest laps, a mere four podiums, an anemic total of 50 points over four seasons. This season, Villeneuve has often trailed even his own teammate, Olivier Panis. Fair enough, his cars have not been competitive, but great drivers do magical things with inferior cars. One has to wonder whether the Canadian would still be a Championship contender even if he had a good car beneath him.

The moral is, a great opening season does not necessarily make a great driver. Some drivers burn out quickly. Montoya has shown that he has the will and the car control to push himself to the front of Formula One. If Williams can find the reliability to match its performance, and if Frank Williams doesn't dump him as soon as he reaches the top, as has been Williams's wont, Montoya will be a Championship contender for years to come. The question is, will he ultimately have the staying power of a Michael Schumacher, a Jim Clark, an Ayrton Senna, who win with good cars and bad, and leave an indelible mark on the sport; or will he flash and fade like the Jacques Villeneuves and Damon Hills?