This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Michelin Caught Short Arrows Under the Hammer

Michelin Caught Short

Following the San Marino Grand Prix, where Ferrari and Bridgestone were strongly dominant, Michelin changed the emphasis of their development to focus on dry tyres (see Michelin Shaken but Stirring). At the time, the drumming they'd received at the hands of the new Ferrari on Bridgestones made it seem like the optimum route to a race win. After all, most races are dry, and the work involved in competing with Bridgestone's intermediate tyres hardly seemed worth the effort.

Of course, following the debacle at Silverstone, the decision doesn't look quite so clever. The difference between the Bridgestone and Michelin intermediate tyres was brought home hard, with Heinz-Harald Frentzen in a Bridgestone shod Arrows believing Ralf Schumacher's Williams was 'easy meat' ­ before his engine blew ­ whilst McLaren and Renault lost track position hand over fist during the struggle to find competitive rubber. Qualifying saw Michelin tyres on six of the top eight runners, whilst the race saw six Bridgestone runners finish in the top eight.

Whilst Michelin's full wet tyres are fairly useful, probably relatively competitive with the Bridgestone equivalent, the work that has gone into the intermediate tyre hasn't really moved on significantly since the end of last year. Bridgestone's intermediate tyres have been very highly respected since Michael Schumacher's dominant performance, based on understanding the longevity of the rubber, as far back as the 2000 USA Grand Prix. The few occasions which required intermediate tyres last year demonstrated Michelin had ground to cover ­ but then again, all their wet tyres were below par, so wet races were lost causes.

Since San Marino, the Michelin juggernaut has not been trucking in quite the right direction. Questing for wins has put the focus on a more extreme approach ­ compounded by success in Monaco. With the focus on sorting out the dry weather tyres, resource to improve the wet tyres has been diluted. As it happens, there has been some good progress with the full wet tyres. Changes to the construction have been key to improving the longevity of the tyre, whilst solid research into the tread means the current full wet tyre shifts twenty percent more water than the same tyre this time last year.

That's all very well for when the circuit has standing water, but the fairly wide spectrum of surfaces between bone dry and fully wet before the water is standing also needs to be addressed, and this intermediate area is where Bridgestone have sown up the market. The issues surrounding intermediate tyres are complex: they need to be able to run on a practically dry track without overheating and wearing fast, whilst still being soft enough to be effective on a wet track. Grip must be as consistent as possible through the varying conditions that can occur on a drying circuit, and of course, the more grip the better, as always. In their original pursuit of the ideal intermediate, Bridgestone worked heavily with Ferrari, turning out hundreds of laps at a flooded Mugello over three months in the middle of 2000.

Michelin still need to win races, which leads them to continue with the dry tyre focus; however, the credit they would gain is more than offset by appearing to be hopelessly out of touch on a wet surface. It will not come as a surprise to learn that both Williams and McLaren have made no bones of the requirement to make changes in this department either.

Making progress is not going to be a trivial matter, though. The tread pattern is the least of Michelin's problems -­ they are struggling to find a construction and compound that combines to be effective across the same spectrum that Bridgestone are handling. When the compound is hard enough to be effective on a nearly dry track, it is not retaining enough heat in wetter conditions to maintain grip levels. Softening the rubber or cutting more grooves helps the tyre to generate more heat, but softening the compound impacts longevity, whilst reducing the rubber in contact with the ground reduces grip.

Ironically, the problem Michelin face is analogous to the issues they are fighting with their dry tyres, where everything still comes down to controlling the movement of the tread blocks on the tyres, which does not leave a particularly good prognosis for a quick turn around.

Arrows Under the Hammer

It has been an open secret in the paddock that Arrows financial position was scarcely better than Minardi's, with Jordan keeping clear of the bottom of the financial heap only by dint of works engines from Honda, and Eddie Jordan's relatively early staff cuts.

When Arrows failed to turn up until late on Thursday, there was some concern over the state the company had found itself in, though few believed a withdrawal for financial reasons was really on the cards. Insolvency would automatically disqualify the team from their rights under the Concorde Agreement, reducing their worth from "going concern" to "asset value" in an instant. If it was impossible to run, then once scrutineering had been passed, withdrawing due to 'safety concerns' is always the route to take. Or failing to qualify through unresolvable technical issues, and "no engine installed" definitely counts in that department!

How Arrows got into this position is something of a lengthy tail, but it abbreviates quite well. Loosely, it boils down to the fact that, having received some serious offers to invest in or buy Arrows, one of the main shareholders of the team (Morgan Grenfell) has effectively stopped the team trading whilst they establish exactly how much they own, what the offers entail, and what they are entitled to.

One of the three potential investors, apparently, is Craig Pollock. Despite his recent departure from BAR, the Scot is still very interested in continuing his role in the sport, and wants to buy his way back in. Details of his backing are very sketchy, though there is speculation that Red Bull represents a considerable part of the package (in return for an American branding to the team), or a brought in Vauxhall, a Canadian Motorsport Consortium. Should Pollock's offer for the whole team be accepted, then Tom Walkinshaw is obliged to sell, in order for Morgan Grenfell to realise profits from investing in the team.

Ever since Walkinshaw announced a 'major new backer' the paddock has speculated, despite denials by owner Dietrich Mateschitz, that Red Bull were exercising an option to buy forty percent of the team. It would also explain why, when cash to pay for the engines was in doubt, Red Bull was prepared to loan the sums in return for being repaid from the team's appearance money over the remainder of the season.

How a complete sale would work is also to be established: in the event, Tom Walkinshaw is expected to get together with Phoenix (Prost's purchaser), in order to get back on the grid next year. Naturally, he would be keen to keep his team members and factory, so he would angle an Arrows sale to be the intellectual rights, and exclude the Leafield factory itself. How long it would take the sponsors to jump after that is anyone's guess.