The Weekly Grapevine
If there's a question that gets asked more than any other in Formula One, it's probably, "how powerful is that engine?" All the teams spend a lot of time trying to work out what power their rivals can draw upon, looking upon any deficit as a problem to be sorted out with some urgency - or as an excuse for being unable to perform at the front.
Of course, even though Prost very nicely demonstrated power is not everything last season, 2002 is no different to any other year, and the usual amount of ferreting about has been going on, to uncover this year's performance units.
Following up on their very successful '01 unit, Williams are again looking like the benchmark team, as their new BMW engine has been recorded revving to 20,000 rpm. Unless Ferrari's new offering goes further, this will at least be the benchmark for the other teams to aim for! Absolute power is, again, an improvement on last year, but works out around 870bhp, rather than the 900bhp that rivals feared was on the way.
After a disappointing season, Mercedes appear to have pulled their socks up again, and found nearly 20bhp with their new engine, bringing the total to a commendable 860bhp. Bring a lower centre of gravity to the redesigned package, and it looks like an engine that will at least let McLaren keep the front runners honest this year.
Whilst little is certain about the new Ferrari engine (especially as the new chassis is supposed to come with a revised drive train that could make dyno figures meaningless), their 2001 unit, as used by Sauber, is coming in at a pretty useful 850bhp. Considering that rivals estimated the maximum power of the unit at the end of last year, as raced by Ferrari, at under 845bhp, it seems that either Sauber have already benefited from developments applicable from the new unit. Or, of course, they are playing with what used to be Ferrari qualifying engines...
Rapidly closing the gap, on pure power terms, Renault, Honda and Ford have all made solid progress, and are coming in somewhere between 835 and 845bhp. Precise figures are impossible to be ascertain, after all three successfully sowed seeds of dis-information through the off season; however, rivals have estimated ball park figures from their performance in testing. On the other hand, it is now known that all three have been aiming to get over 845bhp by Melbourne. This target, set by last season's Championship winning Ferrari, is considered by all three as a more important psychological milestone than how they stack against each other.
Rumours that Asiatech's new engine will give Minardi a real boost have to wait until they have spent some time on the track before they will be believed. Last year, the team was competing with their own, three year old Ford engine, and only 760 horses. Even if Asiatech have only managed a modest improvement with their promised "completely new engine," they will offer Minardi over 800bhp. On the other hand, if they deliver to order, another 20 would have the team at less of a disadvantage than last year.
Still unknown, Toyota are being cagey about their unit. They make no bones of the fact it's powerful, but the chassis is something of an unknown quantity, making it difficult for rivals to tie down their power. Somewhere close to Ford (perhaps, 830bhp) is the best conservative guess so far, but a couple of teams have a wary eye on the newcomers, believing that the simple chassis could hide a very competitive engine.
And then, of course, there's Ferrari. The Italian outfit was understandably concerned at BMW's emergence as a real pacesetter last year. However, with rumours about their revised packaging and drive train dominating the grapevine, there's been nothing solid about the power they expect to derive from the new engine. Except that it's more than last year - which, naturally, is of considerable concern to their rivals.
All told, it's not been a very good start to the season for Arrows. Admittedly, with Prost going under, they now have the opportunity to bring Heinz-Harald Frentzen on board, but even that is promising to be a difficult proposition. Since the testing ban ended, Arrows have not been out on the track. The first run has only just taken place - and that was just a shakedown of the new car.
In a year when they have landed a works engine deal, the last thing Arrows needs, is to be struggling at the back of the field through a lack of testing: this is the biggest opportunity the team have had to attract attention - and sponsors - since Damon Hill defended his World Championship with them in '97.
In retrospect, suing Pedro Diniz is going to prove very expensive. He did, indeed, terminate his contract early, but Arrows knew they materially failed to deliver on the full terms themselves, too. Taking him to court was a calculated risk, gambling the millions his sponsorship should have brought against having to pay legal fees for losing. However, it is hard to understand why, on having their claims rejected, they appealed - twice - unless it was intended as a route to delay paying the Diniz legal fees.
As the case was finally put to rest, the total bill adds up to over a million pounds sterling. Considering the Arrows budget, that amounts to something like two percent of the total spend for this year, if the marketing department meets budget. Or, looking at it another way, it is about the cost of three full weeks of testing.
It makes it even more interesting that Arrows are still talking to Frentzen, though. The driver, whilst highly rated, comes at a price: even with Jordan forking out for half his salary, the driver brings nothing by way of personal sponsorship. Furthermore, with Jos Verstappen already signed up, Tom Walkinshaw would again be looking to his lawyers for a loophole to avoid paying any severance fees.
In the run up to Melbourne, which is traditionally the best opportunity a smaller team has to score points in the dry, Arrows are going to be hard pushed. There are three full testing weeks left, which really doesn't leave much time for fixing problems. Adding to the pain, the opening three races are so far off, that without running a separate test team (an expensive proposition), no significant testing can be accomplished, even if new parts are developed. So, if this car isn't right, straight out of the box (new engine and all), then the first three races are going to be exciting indeed.
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