This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: More Safety Concerns Williams Target Early Wins

More Safety Concerns

Behind the talk of backmarkers on pole position, there are some serious concerns that go beyond how seemly it is for a Ferrari to languish behind a Minardi.

The undercurrent of concern relates to the potential for relatively inexperienced drivers, in relatively slow starting cars, being mixed up with Championship contenders at the start of the grid. Whilst it might make the action more interesting to viewers for a few laps, it means that there is likely to be a lot more congestion in the opening stages of the race - particularly headed down to the first corner - with a corresponding increase in the likelihood of tangles.

As there are a couple of ways for front markers to get to the front, it is inevitable that, sooner or later, it will: even if Minardi boss Paul Stoddart never decides he needs a front-row spot to impress sponsors, and takes all the fuel out of his cars, one day the weather will intervene by dropping a bucket-load of rain half way through the Saturday session. And as usual, whilst the politics from the potential of a Minardi on pole is considered good copy, the drivers' concerns are not really making the headlines.

There are always the arguments that these are supposed to be the best handful of drivers the sport has to offer, and they should be able to avoid crashing out at the earliest opportunity. However, history ably demonstrates that the only certainty at the first corner is, twenty drivers are going to be aiming at the same spot on the track, and they are not going to be polite about occupying it: last year, the first corner in Australia saw Ralf Schumacher collide with Rubens Barrichello; behind them, Nick Heidfeld crashed into Giancarlo Fisichella, and collected Felipe Massa, Jenson Button, Allan McNish and Olivier Panis in the chaos.

This matter is not as simple as 'staying out of trouble' either. Drivers from the leading teams, finding themselves amid lightly fuelled back markers at the start of the race will discover they are in the same position as David Coulthard when he trailed Enrique Bernoldi at Monaco in 2001. In this case, Coulthard toured behind Bernoldi for 37 laps before the Brazilian pitted - the alternative being a risky dive up the inside that would probably have seen Bernoldi move his Arrows to cover the line, and neatly remove the front wing of the McLaren.

Although Coulthard curbed his frustration, conserved fuel, then made up places hand over fist as the field in front of him pitted, to be eventually rewarded with two World Championship points, the stigma of being stranded behind a backmarker has stuck: everyone knows who can't even pass Bernoldi. It's hard to see Juan Pablo Montoya or Kimi Raikkonen waiting for the pitstops to pass a Minardi!

Williams Target Early Wins

Despite protestations that the aero package isn't producing the results the design team hoped for, and that there is a lot of work remaining before the chassis is properly understood, the Williams team are going down-under targeting the opening three races as an opportunity to win races. And even though they are running against developments of last year's Ferrari and McLaren, they are certain it is not going to be easy.

Looking forward to the season opener, Williams expect Australia to suit the F2002 well. The Ferrari is exceptionally well balanced, powerful, and very efficient in a high downforce set-up. And, very importantly, Ferrari already know how to set it up for almost any circumstances, so as the Melbourne surface dust is cleaned up, trimming the car's balance to suit should prove relatively simple. Throw a reasonable chance of rain into the mix, and it is easy to see the strength of Ferrari's case for taking last season's dominant car along.

In recent years, Williams have struggled to get the 'right' balance for qualifying, as a consequence of concentrating on race set-up, and their results reflect it: an unspectacular, or even poor qualifying session, followed by a fairly decent race, and normally a podium. This season, with the Saturday qualifying session run in full race trim, presents a solid opportunity to operate on a level pegging with Ferrari: when the team will get the car set-up right, and then it should come down to strategy and tyres. Given Michelin's progress through the off-season, Williams believe they might be able to surprise Ferrari here.

Malaysia, on the other hand, should hold fewer surprises. The circuit needs relatively high downforce, and has two long straights, playing right into the hand of BMW: their new engine is expected to lead the field for straightforward power, so minor shortcomings in the aerodynamics and 'incomplete understanding of the chassis' should be largely compensated for. Unless Ferrari dominate Melbourne, or there is a lot of rain that prevents them from getting the time to set the car up, Williams consider themselves favourites here.

The dominant characteristics at Brazil - the bumpy surface, and huge, uphill straight on an otherwise twisty circuit - provide an interesting mix. Optimum downforce levels would normally be high, but that makes it too easy for opponents to overtake on the main straight: reducing downforce costs time, but is considered vital, unless it rains. Fortunately for Williams, the more powerful the engine, the less downforce needs to come off, and the better the car will go in both qualifying and the race. The Ferrari's excellent balance and aerodynamics will make them strong competition, and considering the punishment inflicted by the bumps, probably more reliable. However, this is also a place where Williams believe McLaren's MP4-17D will be strong. Despite lacking power, the aero package is one of the most efficient around, and they have a tradition of managing the bumps well here. When they go the distance, they go well here.

Being half way realistic, Williams can see potential wins from Malaysia and Brazil, with the Australian result more likely to go Ferrari's way, if Michelin's tyres live up to expectations: but the real deal breaker is going to be reliability. The new car just hasn't had as many testing miles as anyone would like, and it includes a lot of changes in the pursuit of performance. Optimistic forecasts are one thing, but historically, these things rarely go to plan. If the car is not reliable, then a lot of points will go begging. On the other hand, if it is reliable, then Ferrari at least are likely to bring forward the introduction of their 2003 car. And from that point on, the story will read very differently.