After months of testing, hard work, rules changes, and politics, Formula One finally gets back to Grand Prix action this weekend in Melbourne. The season opening race in Australia will finally show the face of the "New F1" after weeks of speculation over how the changes will affect the show. Atlas F1's Craig Scarborough previews the first race of the season and reviews the chances of the ten teams

It's not until the start of the first GP weekend of the year that all the pieces are in place to make judgements on the various teams and the outcome of the season ahead. All the teams have released their new or interim cars, they have tested them at various tracks, and the team principals and drivers have stated their ambitions. But this year is be different; radical rule changes have been enacted over the winter, with some not being clarified until last week, which will make the first race unpredictable right up until the final pit stops on Sunday afternoon. This preview will assess the track, some possible strategies, and what we can expect from the 20 drivers this weekend.

Weekend Strategies

The various changes mean that over the weekend we will be constantly second guessing the strategies of the teams and drivers. With qualifying trim defining the race set up for the cars, the driver is locked into a race strategy from the moment the cars leaves the pits on Saturday for his one flying lap. Friday morning testing, for the four teams that have taken up the option, will be no indication of pace; the first open practice session later in the day will consist the all teams setting up for competitive running. Only Friday afternoons timed runs will be indicative of a driver's pace; this session will not decide anything but the qualifying order, with the fastest driver on Friday running his qualifying lap last on Saturday. This will give the team more time to monitor the pace of the other cars, and allow them to guess at their rivals' strategies in order to revise its own strategy before that crucial run.

All season Friday afternoon should be the tinderbox of excitement that qualifying used to be, given that qualifying will be dominated by race strategy. Many teams will shake up the order by trading qualifying pace for race pace, gambling that an early pit stop will pay off for the higher qualifying slot. This shouldn't be the case this weekend though; the cars are unproven, the new format is untested, and the many incidents that traditionally occur during the first race make this a race to plod along in an attempt to pick up those first valuable points of the year. By the time the teams line up for the Imola race the horse-trading in fuel loads will be more of a known quantity, and all sorts of strategies will be attempted.

Winter Testing

Along with the unpredictability of the new race weekend format we also have the usual doubt over the teams' performance in winter testing (what fuel level a driver running when he broke a lap record, the time of day and the state of his tyres, whether the fast lap was a one off, etc). Assessing winter testing performance needs careful analysis; drivers' comments on rival cars is one way to judge another cars handling, but the honesty of these statements needs to be examined. Certainly some teams have upped their game over winter, while others are in a state of disarray in comparison to 2002 and need more work.

Winter Testing

Albert Park in Melbourne plays host to the Australian Grand Prix, and it is neither a full time race circuit nor a street circuit, running as it does on purpose-made roads around the park. The parkland setting and the warm Melbourne weather combine to make the race circuit a pleasant place to watch the race. The track surface is as green as the surrounding park; after a year of pedestrians, cycles and horses passing over the track the grip level is poor, although it will improve throughout the weekend including during the race. Last year rain, cold weather and accidents kept the track green until late in the weekend, creating problems for the Michelin runners in particular.

The additional running on Friday morning by the '10 test day' teams will improve the tracks quality as they will run a much larger number of laps in that period then the other teams will during open practice. Mike Gascoyne pointed out that Renault's third driver Allan McNish will be used as an expensive road sweeper as he completes his runs for the team during the 'test' session.

The long (5km) layout has some fast corners, but being compressed in a small area near a city centre means that the straights are relatively short. Modest amounts of downforce are needed to endow the cars with the balance and quick "turn in" for the tighter corners, but the fast exit from many corners make the cars prone to oversteer and spin out, often being shunted by a following car in the process. Stability is key, as it helps with the bumps and severe kerbing on the exit to many corners. Many drivers find they need time to acclimatise to this street circuit-like track, with its demands on accuracy, after droning around empty tracks all winter. Accuracy will be critical this year; without a spare car and with less time to repair cars damaged in qualifying some of the less controlled drivers will be embarrassed before the end of the weekend.

Keeping everything cool will be important for this race; most of the winter testing was held in Spain which, while warm for Europe at that time of year, will not compare to late summer in Melbourne. Engine and brakes will be tested for cooling, and the race format of cooling ducts is part of the work allowed on the cars in parc ferme after qualifying.

A Lap of Albert Park with David Coulthard

Powering up through the gears along the start-finish line at the 3.295 mile/5.303 km Albert Park circuit, you reach some 190mph/305km/h in seventh gear, before braking hard for the right-left weave of turns one and two. Your speed drops to 87mph/140km/h in second gear and then increases through the left weave to some 127mph/200km/h.

You apply the throttle on the exit for the Aughtie Drive straight, reaching some 185mph/300km/h in seventh on the approach to the tight right of turn three, which is taken at 50mph / 80km/h in second gear, which marks the hardest breaking point on the track as you pull some –3.5G.

This is again immediately followed by turn four, a sharp left hander which flicks you onto the short Whitford straight. Power on, you reach 150mph/240km/h in fifth gear along the straight before dabbing the brakes for the long, flowing right hander of turn five, which sees your speed decrease only slightly to 142mph/230km/h in fourth gear. It is one of those corners that you take flat in qualifying.

You need to maintain as much speed as possible through this sequence of bends to ensure you have a good exit as you power down the short straight that takes you to the tight right of turn six, reaching 177mph/285km/h in fifth, before braking for the second gear right hander which is taken at 75mph/120km/h.

Exiting, you take it completely flat through the sweeping right of the Lauda curve, reaching some 177mph/285km/h in sixth gear on the approach to Clark. This sharp right is negotiated at 60mph/100km/h in second gear.

Hard on the throttle, another long, sweeping bend follows. You need to accelerate through the left of turn ten you as your speed increases to some 183mph/294km/h in seventh gear, before the fast left-right chicane of eleven and twelve. Maintaining fifth gear through this section of the track, with your speed not dropping below 130mph/210km/h, you keep on the throttle as you exit along the short straight that leads to Ascari.

Another hard braking point, your speed drops from 185mph/300km/h in sixth gear to 77mph/125km/h in second for the tight right hander.

A short straight leads to Stewart, another right hander, which is taken at 110mph/180km/h in third gear. Again a short burst of acceleration on the approach to the 90-degree right of Prost, you reach 145mph/235km/h in fourth before braking hard for the final two corners. The first of which is a tight left hander and is negotiated in first gear at 45mph/70km/h.

On the exit, you apply throttle momentarily and shortshift into third gear for the last bumpy right hander that flicks you back onto the start finish straight to begin another lap.

Tyres

Tyres may well provide the answer to the problem of lack of pace experienced last year by many of the teams. McLaren struggled in their first year on Michelins, while Williams found they did not work as well for them as the Bridgestones did for Ferrari. The Bridgestone customer teams (i.e. other than Ferrari) were left with a compromised tyre for their use.

New regulations theoretically allow each supplier to provide two types of bespoke tyres for each team, which would be twenty types of dry tyre rather than the usual four. Logistically this will not happen, and both suppliers have found that one tyre suiting the circuit is more critical than tyres for each individual car. Michelin has made great strides over the winter with its new family of tyres, with McLaren in particular finding the new compounds and constructions made their interim MP4/17 much faster than many other teams actual 2003 cars. Bridgestone are also confident that development over the winter will aid all of their teams. There should be little to decide between the manufacturers, who both have 50% of the teams.

Michelin
Williams
McLaren
Renault
Toyota
Jaguar

Bridgestone
Ferrari
Sauber
Jordan
BAR
Minardi

Team by Team

Ferrari

Even running the revised F2002, Ferrari are entering the season as clear favourites. Betting between the two drivers for the championship was split as a result of Barrichello pace last year, although it is debatable whether the new F2003GA will suit his driving as well as the old car, so Schumacher comes out on top as overall favourite. Tyres appear to be the only question mark, should weather or track conditions favour Michelin. Both drivers were relaxed during the winter testing season and with their knowledge of the old car they should feel confident that the final result will be in their favour come Sunday evening.

Williams

Early testing of the new car has been farcical, with different aerodynamic configurations run at various tests giving no clear indication of the definitive set up for 2003. Differences in opinion between Williams, the drivers and BMW on how the car has performed also points to tension within the team. Lap records have been earned by the FW25, but lingering doubts remain on its pace, and Melbourne may not show the car to its full potential, although early season development will no doubt improve the car.

Tensions have not been restricted to the team and its partners; the drivers are openly competitive and altercations between them last year will probably spill over into the new season. Both drivers have a point to prove, with Montoya trying prove his position as the team's best driver and Schumacher trying to project a more mature image. Both drivers lack the stability and intelligence of Schumacher senior, and Williams is not the sort of team that manages driver rivalries well. As with last year, the fireworks could start as soon as the first corner. After that Williams will probably either run away with the race or trail Ferrari and McLaren; either driver could end up in front, but presumably they will not both be around at the finish.

McLaren

After a second season of admitting the car and team were not good enough McLaren goes into 2003 trying to hide the fact that they do not have a definitive car and are treating this year as a stop gap. The new MP4/18 was delayed this year to follow a new development path, and that path has now been blocked by new FIA rules due to come into effect at Silverstone. That said the interim car has shown great and consistent pace all winter and could star in the opening rounds of the season.

Chronic unreliability marred many races last year, but winter testing has shown the new Mercedes engine to be much more reliable. Selecting the driver to step up to the challenge this year is tricky; Coulthard arrives at every new season with a new focus, more fitness and greater motivation, so he will need to grab the championship lead as early as possible if he is to keep his hopes alive over the difficult period before debutting the new car. Raikkonen may have a different focus for this year; he seems as relaxed and unenthused as ever, but his first race win must be his goal. I predict McLaren will be best of the rest in Australia.

Renault

With a fine new car (albeit not as blindingly quick as their rivals) Renault need to consolidate and keep up their pace and reliability for a full season. They are well prepared, and Melbourne could give the team a good start to the season. The benefit of additional running on Friday mornings with three cars will help them in the early races, although the lack of off-track testing will hinder them later in the year. Renaults choice of the Friday test option is both a good and a bad idea; the recent announcement on the tyre allocation for this session will set them back, as will the ongoing development of a new suspension system.

Jarno Trulli ended up acquitting himself well last year, and while he has not shown the clear-cut focus of a race winner he has also not had the car to demonstrate it. He's now teamed up with Flavio Briatore's favourite driver Fernando Alonso, and as a result Jarno may have some motivation problems this year. Alonso is the new star for Renault; his relaxed attitude befits his young age, and the technical staff are impressed with his driving. Both the car and the drivers need to do a solid job in Australia, where they are capable of a podium finish. Simply showing pace and trailing off the track in a puff of smoke will not validate their decisions on car design and race weekend strategy.

Sauber

Perennial midfielders Sauber showed their consistency once more last year, following Renault in the championship, but they lacked the spark that would see them challenge the top three. With Frentzen on board, more powerful Ferrari engines, and a new chassis that appears to handle well they could break their stride and show some real pace this year. Sauber decided against signing up for Friday testing, which could be a negative thing for the team with their history of poor season-long development, in addition to the signing of ace test driver Frentzen. The new car shows great turn-in and grip in fast corners, which should suit the Melbourne track, and with two mature drivers points are a strong likelihood this weekend.

Jordan

Late with the money, the car and the second driver, Jordan has not had a good build up to the season, and its financial problems may not end here. Yet the new car looks good and its performance is becoming clearer; although lacking the running of its rivals it appears to provide a good basis to mount the team's championship challenge on.

If the car's performance equals its midfield rivals then Fisichella is the man to get the car into the points in the race. The new weekend format may well suit Fisichella; never one for suicidal qualifying laps, his consistent race pace will form the team's qualifying/race strategy. This weekend should see him up on the timesheets Friday before running a heavier qualifying fuel load in preparation for a long opening stint in the race. Firman an unknown quantity; experienced in testing in F1 and successful in Japan he is both a technical and mature driver, but the sudden rush to get him in the car may leave him unprepared for his first GP weekend, although he should be expected to turn in a race finish this weekend.

Jaguar

Stability and continuity has been Ferraris strength after three consecutive championships, although this fact has clearly been lost on Jaguar's management. With an overly conservative car, the team may not have the potential to see its pace sustained all year. With new drivers and team management the lack of F1 experience in the team is worrying. Mark Webber is a fine driver, but he only has one season at Minardi to draw on to lead the team. Pizzonia has experience of testing at Williams, but that role is not the same as that of a race driver trying to get the best out of the car and team. The team can only be expected to do an adequate job as they learn their way, and this weekend the team's aim must be to qualify off the ninth and tenth rows of the grid and finish the race within a lap of the leader.

BAR

BAR seem to have had a turnaround this winter; almost a new team has emerged, but the media are already debating how long Villeneuve's tenure at the team will last, and how will he get on with his new team mate Button. If the new car delivers on the promise shown in its design then at least the drivers will be arguing over who gets a top 10 grid position and points in the race, as opposed to the barren race finishes seen in 2002.

Over the winter the car's pace has been steadily improving, and although reliability is not quite perfect it is nonetheless an improvement. Picking the team's chances for this weekend is tricky; results will not be indicative of their full potential, as the car needs further development. Picking which driver comes out on top is also difficult; Villeneuve's pace is dependant on his motivation, and at this early stage of the season he should be gearing up for a strong season (although a run of bad results will probably put him out of the team at the end of the year). Button has to get his foot in the door and needs to deliver pace and results; without this Villeneuve could dominate the team and weaken his resolve. This weekend I feel the drivers will be equal able to fight for points.

Minardi

Little initial testing in an unrepresentative car and no F1 tyres, followed by a few days running the new car, suggests Melbourne will be a daunting task for Minardi. But this is the usual position for Minardi, and the weekend will be tackled in typically enthusiastic style. With a reliable and powerful Cosworth engine propelling the new car a race finish would be well received, and with problems affecting the rest of the field points could be on the cards if one of the drivers is having a strong run. In qualifying many people are expecting Minardi to run with empty tanks to get a top grid placing, exciting their sponsors with more TV coverage. This would replace their customary first team on the track in qualifying trick, as this is no longer possible with the new weekend format. However, problems can be expected with so little running, and with Verstappen known to overdrive the car on top of Wilson's inexperience both drivers could run off the track in practice, seriously hampering preparations for the race.

Toyota

Often derided for their lack of pace in 2002, Toyota have sprung the surprise of the winter and rolled out a new car that not only looks the part but runs well too. Toyota needs to deliver on the intent seen in testing, although the reality will be slightly less than the top of the midfield suggested by winter testing. Toyota still have a lot to learn in running an F1 car, and the design team are still building the resources they need to get the most from the car.

Their drivers may also limit the team's aspirations this year. While Panis will motivate the team well and put in some great drives he may well be a stopgap signing for the team. Da Matta will have a steep learning curve; he is being groomed for stardom by Toyota, but while his ChampCars championship in the U.S. was impressive, his lack of domination in European championships raises doubts over his suitability for F1. This weekend expect to see Panis taking the fight to the midfield and da Matta suffering a baptism of fire.