Juan Pablo Montoya, Ralf Schumacher, Jenson Button, Kimi Raikkonen... They have all been tipped as The Next Big Thing, yet there are signs indicating they are not Michael Schumacher. Now it's Fernando Alonso who is making the headlines. But will his potential materialize? Atlas F1's Roger Horton warns against believing the hype

Michael Schumacher may have won the Spanish Grand Prix in his brand new Ferrari, but the star of the show was undoubtedly local boy Fernando Alonso, who almost single-handedly brought in most of the 100,000 paying punters that came through the gates on race day and pushed the five-times Champion hard throughout. Spain has a new hero and F1 a new superstar in the making and - if you believe some of the hype already appearing in print - Schumacher has another challenger about to push him from his throne.

Or maybe not.

Over the past few years, there seems to have been a string of drivers built up as being The Next Big Thing by a media perhaps casting around during these years of Michael Schumacher domination for a driver capable of challenging the master, or at least making him work harder for his victories. Cast your mind back a few years and Jenson Button was the name on everyone's lips; then it was Juan Pablo Montoya; then Kimi Raikkonen. Along the way Ralf Schumacher's name has often been in the frame only to constantly disappoint. After Brazil and a good qualifying performance at Imola, Mark Webber joined this growing club of young pretenders, who, given the opportunity, could inherit Michael's mantle.

Of course none of these drivers have the benefit of driving cars that can match the Champion's Ferrari and so realistically all these drivers are going to struggle in any head to head comparison. But, many would argue, all have so far failed in the first and basic test of judging a driver's future potential - the ability to totally dominate their teammate, the only guy on the grid driving the same equipment. Surely, until a young pretender can, in F1 speak, blow away his teammate, he must be a long way from being taken seriously as a driver likely to depose a Champion with Michael Schumacher's hugely impressive credentials?

There are those that claim, that with the death of Ayrton Senna in 1994 and the retirements in quick succession of Alain Prost, Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet, the overall skill level of the F1 grid was lowered considerably during the balance of the nineties. Statistics have to be used carefully in assessing racing drivers' standings and achievements over their careers, but the overall lack of experience and wins amongst the current crop of front-runners is pretty remarkable and underlines the gap in class between Schumacher and the rest.

Just a decade ago, in 1993, the top three drivers going into the sixth round of the championship (the Monaco Grand Prix) were Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher. Leaving Schumacher out of the equation, his two Championship rivals had no less than 85 wins between them at that time. Fast forward ten years and Michael's current two rivals, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso have just a solitary victory between them so far in their F1 careers. Of course at the same time in 1993 Schumacher had only one win against his name, which didn't stop him challenging these two great masters, but by mid '93 the young German was also dominating his teammates.

That is not to say that a number of these current drivers haven't at some stage in their admittedly short careers looked like the real deal. At the tail end of his debut season Jenson Button had about him the air of a driver gifted with greatness. His performances at Spa and Suzuka in 2000, when judged against his more established teammate Ralf, laid out his credentials for a glittering future. At the season-ending Malaysian Grand Prix he spoke about the challenges that these high-speed circuits had presented to him in such a matter-of fact way that suggested a driver already so on top of his job that he could only be a Champion in waiting.

Back then he could laugh at his troubles and shrug off a bad day at the office because he seemed to have talent to burn and such a mature head on his shoulders that it was a shock to see him get so buried with the challenges he faced at Benetton and then Renault. The talk was still positive but his body language betrayed his real state of mind as he struggled to come to terms with his newfound status of yesterday's star. At BAR, Jenson's performances against his teammate, former World Champion Jacques Villeneuve, have started the process of rehabilitating his reputation but much more needs to be done before there can be any serious talk of him being in Schumacher's master class.

And what of Juan Pablo Montoya, the high profile CART and Indy 500 Champion and Button's successor at Williams? As far as raw talent goes, there are those that would contend he has more than any other driver on the grid, including Schumacher. But 'raw' is the operative word. Raw talent is what Montoya showed when he outbraked Jenson Button - all four tyres smoking - going into turn one in Spain in the restarted race. Raw talent was his side-by-side overtaking move on Kimi Raikkonen in last season's German GP. Raw talent was the incredible car control he showed driving with his dry tyres on a damp track in Australia during the opening race of the season.

Talent like this is God given and can't be learned. But at some stage the talent needs to be honed, polished, refined into an approach that works throughout the GP weekend and on all tracks and in all conditions. Honed so that his brilliant early race pace in Australia was rewarded with the win it deserved, and not spinning it away in an unforced error. In recent years, Williams have failed to provide a car that has been consistently competitive, so Montoya can be forgiven for failing in his unequal battles against Michael Schumacher, but the jury is still out on whether the Colombian will come out ahead in his inter-team battle with his teammate Ralf. Surely if Montoya was the next Great One, the F1 world would have already written Ralf's F1 obituary long ago?

Ralf Schumacher remains one of the great enigmas in the paddock. When he demolished the field two seasons ago to win the Canadian Grand Prix, his second win of the year, he looked for all the world to be a driver at peace with himself and a Championship contender. With a highly lucrative new two-year Williams contract extension in his pocket he was no longer just Michael's little brother but a superstar in his own right.

That Canadian race marked perhaps the greatest contrast in fortunes between the two teammates during their shared time together at Williams thus far. Ralf looked strong and for the first time appeared a match for his elder brother. Montoya, who crashed out in the race and scuffled with Villeneuve in the drivers' briefing, looked totally crushed that weekend and his whole Formula One future looked clouded. The fact that Montoya was able to turn the tables by season's end was a tribute to Montoya's mental strength, but it also showed just how vulnerable Ralf was all along and just how fragile his self-confidence remains.

If these teammates continue to be evenly matched, therefore effectively cancelling each other out, it will be confirmation that perhaps neither is destined for greatness, because surely both are not?

If you had taken a straw poll in the paddock as to Michael's successor prior to Alonso's drive in Spain, Raikkonen would have been the most likely winner. Kimi might not ooze charisma (indeed the first ten minutes I ever spent trying to squeeze some printable words from him remains a still painful memory) but he oozes speed on the track. This Finn is just plain quick. Add to that a calmness that betrays his tender years and no wonder you have a combination that convinced Ron Dennis that he was worth a long-term commitment.

And yet with two full years of F1 experience under his belt Raikkonen is still struggling to impose himself on David Coulthard, his teammate at McLaren. The Scot seems to have an army of detractors, yet he won in Australia, would have won in Brazil without the intervention of the red flag, and was running ahead of the young Finn in Malaysia before his electrics failed. Raikkonen took the honours over David at Imola and the most charitable comment about their drives in Spain was that they both had an off-day.

So with identical equipment Kimi is still struggling to assert his superiority over David Coulthard in any meaningful way. It could well be that Raikkonen's ultimate potential is higher that his teammate, and as the season progresses this will manifest itself. So far there have been flashes of brilliance but nothing conclusive, and remember that in Michael Schumacher's third full year he was challenging and beating the acknowledged master of the day, Ayrton Senna.

Now Alonso has driven a couple of strong races and once again the critics are in overdrive talking up the young Spaniard's prospects. Make no mistake: his drive in Spain was impressive, but I would have been even more impressed had he decisively outpaced his teammate Jarno Trulli in race trim. Trulli, remember, was sidelined after a coming together with Coulthard at the start of the race just as he was at Sepang earlier in the season when Michael Schumacher hit him from behind once again on the opening lap. Trulli is a known quantity and if and when the Italian is being 'blown away' in settled conditions in identical cars then it will be the time to start taking Alonso's claims to superstar status more seriously.

Like Alonso Australia's Mark Webber cut his racing teeth at Minardi, a team that constantly struggles to front every fortnight with two race ready cars, but even so Webber was able to show enough to snare a seat at Jaguar when the Ford owned outfit once again broke the F1 rule book by sacking both its drivers at the same time. Again Webber has looked promising but how much better would he have looked if he were blowing a proven product like Eddie Irvine to the weeds every race weekend instead of the hapless Antonio Pizzonia? And in case you have forgotten last season at Minardi Alex Yoong was (mostly) his teammate!

However, much as the F1 media machine tries to talk up likely challengers for Michael Schumacher's current top dog status, the sheer gulf in experience and results between him and his youthful rivals looks just too big to bridge. It is not just a chasm, it's more of a ravine, and until one or two of these drivers make a start on the road to greatness by dominating their teammates, Schumacher's relatively untroubled winning streak looks set to continue.