This week's Grapevine brings you information fresh from the paddock on: Ferrari Looking to 2004 Silly Season Update

Ferrari Looking to 2004

The MP4-17D that McLaren are currently taking to the races bears only a superficial resemblance to the car that started 2002, having been massively overhauled through the off-season. Indeed, the progress made to move the "old" car forward resulted in a package that would have been considered a creditable new car elsewhere: certainly it performed well at the start of the season. Rivals were anticipating the arrival of the 'real' 2003 car with some concern. So news that McLaren's much anticipated MP4-18 wouldn't be appearing before Silverstone has made Ferrari very happy indeed.

Despite the fact that McLaren's new car has hardly set the world on fire in testing to date, by the time it is reliable and released, Ferrari expect it will be a serious contender. As Williams are also recovering their form - the Monaco win and Canadian GP performance clearly demonstrate that they are again a force to reckon with - winning races is going to be tougher.

However, whilst it should make it awkward to wrap up the 2003 title in short order, the team firmly believe it puts them in to pole position for next season, as they are already cracking on with the design of the new car: they are aware that McLaren have been developing the MP4-18 for over a year already, which, alongside the continued effort to keep their current car near the front of the grid, has left no time for effort on the next car.

As it stands, even if McLaren bring out their new car at Silverstone, then start working on the new car, the development cycle will be starting over a month late. The team will be faced with a choice between bringing out the car late again, or pushing through an expensive development programme for far more limited gains. There is also the balance between developing old and new cars. Having just put the MP4-18 into action, the team will be keen to spent time and effort evolving the car, to leverage its full potential and learn the shortcomings properly before getting too involved in designing the replacement. In effect, the car has arrived so late that, to all intents and purposes, Ferrari expect McLaren use an evolution of the MP4-18 for the whole of 2004.

Needless to say, Ferrari are on the ball and already planning for next season. Looking at the packaging of the car, its performance to date, experience of the rule changes for this season, and the surprisingly decent performance from Renault, the design team is already revising the brief that generated the F2003-GA.

Williams are considered the biggest threat: should they finish arguing details with BMW and extend the contract, it is easy to predict the German manufacturer will move the goalposts for engines yet again. Accordingly, Ferrari are making ambitious demands of their engine department for the next season: they are looking for maintained power, despite the increased longevity requirements which will see the new units last a whole race weekend.

Renault's package has opened eyes: the aerodynamics are very efficient, making the car as slippery as a Ferrari through the air, and their chassis is clearly working very nicely with the Michelin tyres. Working from digital images, the team have been analysing some of Renault's aerodynamics in their fluid dynamics packages: some of the ideas they've picked out from there could even be made to work with the Ferrari concept for the end of this season.

Despite anticipating a solid development for the new car, Ferrari are concerned that their efforts will be insufficient to bring them another title. Given Bridgestone's inability to offer a decisive advantage so far in 2003, even though they are concentrating on developing to Ferrari's requirements, it might just turn out that tyres will be the decisive factor in 2004.

Silly Season Update

With Franck Montagny announced as the Renault's third driver for their Friday morning test in France, replacing Alan McNish for the session, on top of his successful run in the Nissan World Series (he has won five from six races so far), there has been some head-scratching amongst pundits who are attempting to work out who he will replace at the outfit. The obvious candidate is Jarno Trulli, who is not only out of contract at the end of the year, but has been struggling to shine alongside Fernando Alonso. Needless to say, rumours of his imminent departure are already running aplenty.

To date, speculation on which current drivers might fit into Trulli's vacant seat have been limited to Jacques Villeneuve - due in no small part to expectations that the team are anticipating a difficult 2004, when they are running a new engine. Villeneuve earned a lot of respect with Renault when they powered Williams, and Briatore has plenty of respect from the feedback his Supertec mechanics gave, too. If the Canadian is unwelcome at BAR, then Renault seem like a viable midfield alternative. Then again, if performances are going to be off, it might be a better use of the year to break in Montagny.

Then again, Trulli is managed by Flavio Briatore, who has announced an intention to keep him on. So, running Montagny, a Frenchman, in France is likely just to be an astute political move for a French team who are attempting to generate local interest and support. As far as getting him race experience goes, rather than risk placing him in a Renault seat next year, it makes sense to pay for him to drive a Minardi instead.

Regarding Villeneuve, now it is getting down to crunch time, Dave Richards is making fewer noises about seeing him leave BAR, and might consider a new contract. There is absolutely no doubt that behind the scenes, there is considerable wrangling with Honda and BAT about who is going to pay for him, and how much: however, both appear keen to make their payments performance-based, after years of seeing cars that are slow or unable to make the finish. Needless to say, that is not popular with Richards!

Another driver linked to BAR - Dario Franchitti - was expected to have a test later this year, thanks to his Honda links. However, since ruling himself out of IRL this season for a back operation to repair damage sustained in a motorbike accident, the test has been postponed indefinitely.

Antonio Pizzonia's future with Jaguar also remains bleak, with pundits predicting the team will hire Pedro de la Rosa from McLaren next year, sending Jungle Boy back to Brazil. There has been little interest in him from the other teams, limiting his options for 2004. Provided he can find the sponsorship, he might pay for a drive at Jordan, but rumours that the Irish outfit are going to run customer Mercedes engines and at least one of their drivers next year are persisting. There's no room for any pay driver at Jordan in this scenario.

There has also been speculation that Marc Gene has been approached by Toyota, who are keen to try a driver who can offer them genuine comparison with a front-running car: with BMW holding a reputation for the best engine around, someone familiar with a Williams is high on the shopping list. Then again, in order to entice Gene to the team, they would have to offer the lure of a race seat, which bolsters the belief that at least one of their drivers could be off at the end of the year.