After three weeks without a race, the most important test of the year, and a big tyre controversy, Formula One returns for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. Atlas F1's Craig Scarborough previews the event and the teams that will take place in the fourteenth race of the 2003 season

As the 2003 Formula One World championship enters its last three races, the chase for the title is truly on. The battle for both the Drivers' Championship has been close all season, but never as tight as it is now - the slate has been effectively wiped clean, with three drivers in three different cars all within two points of each other. And to mark the beginning of the end, there is no place better than the Autodromo di Monza and the Italian Grand Prix.

Monza is the home to Italian Motor racing, from its early dangerous days on the banked circuit to the modern chicane-strewn layout. The fervour surrounding the circuit comes from the excitable Ferrari fans - the Tifosi - used in recent years to their team dominating Formula One. Their response this year may not be as heated as usual.

But Monza is, above all, the home of speed, and it's only speed that counts at the Autodromo - the layout of long, fast straights only rewards top speed and the chance to overtake from slipstreaming or late braking.

The Championship Battles

Adding further tension to this three-way battle is the fact that the remaining tracks all have different characters and each could favour different cars. Monza is a simple high-speed circuit; Indianapolis has a tricky slow infield loop, matched to a high-speed oval section; and Suzuka is complex and technical. Moreover, each of these races could see variable weather, from blazing heat to cool conditions, even torrential rain.

We also have three very different drivers - the intelligent and seasoned campaigner in Michael Schumacher; the maturing, natural driver in Kimi Raikkonen; and the innately fast, aggressive driver in Juan Pablo Montoya. Each of them drives a different car, but critically the latter two share the same Michelin tyres, which provided such an advantage over Schumacher's Bridgestones. To predict or even speculate on the outcome of the individual races, let alone the Championship, would prove impossible. Suffice it to say no driver can afford to slip up, let another car past or have his car fail. This pressure will soon tell on the drivers - their maturity, experience and nature will count for a lot, especially through the one-lap qualifying sessions and when handling the media.

Beyond these top three drivers, their teammates in Williams, Ferrari and McLaren, as well as Renault's Fernando Alonso, have Championship positions to race for, as well as some support for their Championship contenders. A mere 13 points separate Ralf Schumacher in fourth to David Coulthard in seventh, and while the climb for Coulthard into fourth is a big leap - considering the current points system and the closeness of the top three drivers - these four drivers will not be giving any quarter over the next three races.

Behind these seven, Renault's Jarno Trulli sits in no-man's land in eighth, while Jenson Button and Mark Webber fight for the 'best of the rest' position, in a fight that is as tight as that at the top.

The fight for the Constructors' Championship is equally close; fourteen points cover the top three teams, with Renault firm in fourth. An intriguing battle for 'best of the rest' now sees BAR, Jaguar and Toyota on a near-level pegging, with Jordan stalled on only two points' finishes (albeit one a win) and Sauber a unbelievable ninth, leaving only Minardi's drivers (plus ex-Jaguar driver Antonio Pizzonia) as failing to score points.

Tyres

Upsetting the applecart before this race was Ferrari disputing Michelin's measurement of their tread width and the FIA's subsequent announcement to the teams that the timing of measuring the tyres will be changed. As a result, the dominant French tyres have been narrowed to comply with the revised procedure. This is unlikely to have a major impact at Monza - the narrower tyres will even aid straight-line speed - but for the more demanding tyre tracks at Indy and Suzuka the situation may be more defined.

Set-Up and Layout

Even if Monza is all about speed, its layout would suggest otherwise. Seven of its turns are no higher than third gear - only the speed built up out of the Ascari chicane and the fearsome top gear 'Curve Grande' sees the cars corner out of third gear. But it's not the fussy chicanes that are dominate how a car is set up, it is the sections in between - most of which are geometrically straight.

To run fast at Monza the teams need to sacrifice as much downforce as possible to cut drag - they only run just enough aerodynamic load to keep the cars stable under braking and through the 'Curve Grande'. And while many drivers could keep the car on the road with even less downforce, the tyres would start to slide and overheat through the turns.

Monza demands very special tyres, as the track surface is grippy and smooth. High terminal speeds, allied to hot ambient temperatures, quickly builds heat up in the tyres, and the impact of heavy braking - followed by kerb hoping through the chicanes - places stress on the sidewalls, which need to be stiffer to cope.

Engines are run heavily stressed, flat out for 70% of the lap in hot conditions. When closely following another car, cooling flow to the radiators is reduced, raising engine temperatures - as does the aerodynamicists' desire to run low drag and hence small cooling outlets. Just as heavily stressed are the brakes, which have three serious stops to encounter per lap. As the race progresses, those teams with overheating brakes will see the discs degrade, pumping out plumes of black smoke and finally disintegrating.

A Lap of Monza with Jacques Villeneuve

"Having crossed the start/finish line at around 320km/h, you accelerate towards the first corner, reaching a speed of nearly 355km/h before braking very hard for the very tight first chicane. Braking is at over 4G for this corner and you're on the brakes for over 110 metres before taking the corner at less than 70km/h in first gear. "At the first chicane you need to cut the corner by jumping on the kerbs. This is important in achieving a quick lap time. A good exit from the second part of the chicane is crucial because of the following long straight.

"You remain in first gear for the second part of the chicane before accelerating through Curva Grande, which is easily taken flat, and approaching the second chicane - the Variante della Roggia - at around 330km/h. Again it's hard on the brakes, and then into second gear at 95km/h for the first part of the chicane.

"There then follows a short fourth gear straight where you reach up to 260km/h by the end and this leads into the first of the Lesmo corners. You brake slightly before the first Lesmo and turn into the right-hand corner in third gear at 165km/h. The first Lesmo is quite fast and banked, but not as fast as it used to be. The area between the two Lesmo corners has a lot of shadow, because of the trees, so the temperature of the track can be different there.

"You then accelerate through fourth gear to just under 260km/h before dropping down to third gear for the second Lesmo corner, which is taken at around 150km/h. The second Lesmo is slower than it used to be - it was a lot faster and you used to take it in 5th but it is now a 3rd gear corner. The exit out of the second Lesmo is important because of the long straight that goes through the Curva del Seraglio and leads to the Ascari chicane.

"You then drive through this long, very narrow straight, and you go under the bridge which carries the old banked circuit. At the end of this straight you reach 335km/h in sixth gear before you break hard for the Ascari chicane, dropping to third gear and turning left to take the first part of the chicane at 140km/h.

"You then turn right for the second at 180km/h, before quickly turning left again as you come out of this chicane. The Variante Ascari is the fastest chicane of the Monza circuit. You must get it right at Ascari, because it's a sequence of corners left, right and left, and if you get the first or second one wrong then you have a bad exit and you don't have the speed on the next straight. Then you just try to get on the gas. It depends very much on the front end of the car, because you don't want too much understeer.

"Thus, you need to come as quickly as possible out of Ascari and drive over the kerbs and use all the road to carry the revs with you for another long straight that leads down to the Parabolica. At the end of this straight you reach 340km/h before entering this very long Parabolica corner, the minimum speed of which is just under 160km/h.

"The Parabolica, one of the nicest corners on the Monza circuit, is a right hand corner which opens up as you go through. It is fast, very long and very important, because it ends and starts the lap. You brake much later than 100m, and you go through in third or fourth gear, depending on the ratios.

"You have to balance the car by playing with the throttle and your exit must be good enough to get the power down as early as possible, the same as with many other areas of the circuit. You have very low downforce, so you're either going to have oversteer or understeer there. It's probably the most important corner and a good exit is therefore imperative to carry good speed back onto the long pit straight."

Team by Team

Ferrari

A team far from looking like World Champions of late, the confidence espoused by Bridgestone before Hungary proved false, with Michael Schumacher fading at the back of the points' finishers. After testing at Monza last week - and as a result of the tyre width clarification - there is yet more confidence in the Japanese and Italian camps.

But looking beyond the tyre issue, Ferrari do not look to be favoured at Monza. While the F2003-GA has seen the highest straight-line speeds, it has also been seen to lack the acceleration of its rivals, and the continued slow getaways at the start of races has found the drivers facing a fight even before the first corner is over. There is a logic that suggests Indy and Suzuka will be better suited to their package, but with many races already squandered they cannot afford Monza to simply be a damage limitation exercise.

Rubens Barrichello's driving has returned to his usual inconsistency after a steadier season in 2002, while Michael Schumacher's drives have lacked flair of fight of late. Witness Ralf Schumacher's easy manoeuvre in Hungary and a lack of challenge on drivers he closed up on after the pitstops.

It has been suggested that Michael Schumacher finds the inherent understeer in the F2003-GA not suited to his driving style and his need for harder tyres is penalising his qualifying laps, but with his skills, a season of development and Ferrari's resources these sound like mere excuses. If he doesn't pick up his act this weekend, a podium may not even be likely without a significant advantage from Bridgestone.

Williams

On paper, Williams should have all they need to win in Monza. Williams tested well at Monza last week, with some engine and technical troubles aside. The car was decked out in Monza spec wings, but otherwise unchanged. Yet the development of the car from its launch in Barcelona in February has been amazing and all the credit for the turnaround in the Championship should be laid the door the engineers at Williams and Michelin.

Picking fortunes for the two Williams drivers this weekend is probably the trickiest of all the top three teams. Williams should have a one-two and since such dominance is expected, they can only lose the race through unreliability, errors, or outstanding drives from their rivals.

McLaren

Having started the season so well, McLaren have re-established themselves after a mid-season lull. Kimi Raikkonen - appearing very much as a dark horse - has brought the car home in strong positions consistently all season, even if his qualifying performances do not reveal the true pace of the package. With the up/down nature of Williams's and Ferrari's fortunes, Raikkonen could feasibly end up the Champion as a result of his consistency.

To push his chances forward McLaren have brought a major reworking of the car's rear end, using the result of the MP4-18 program. The slimmer rear end now features exhaust pipes poking out through tall chimneys and a smaller outlet on the shoulder of the sidepod. Strong results with this and other Monza specific developments at the recent test could see McLaren winning the race on pace alone. This is a longer shot, though, but you can expect to see Raikkonen realistically challenging for a podium this weekend.

With so much talk about Raikkonen, David Coulthard's fortunes have been ignored. His recent races have seen stronger drives than his form for most of 2003. Yet Coulthard's inability to adapt to the car, the new weekend layout and Raikkonen's pace may have sullied his reputation. He has a McLaren drive for 2004, but beyond that it is doubtful he will have such a competitive car.

Renault

On a high from their first win as a manufacturer since 1983, Renault may need to come down for Monza. This is not a circuit that will naturally suit their package - their lack of straight-line speed will hinder their progress. The car has good handling over kerbs and on the brakes, but this will mean little if they can't get close enough to challenge for positions after the straights.

Fernando Alonso's win came on a weekend when Jarno Trulli's luck went awry - he couldn't find the same balance as he had at other races, and his form appeared to fall back to his early season doldrums. Both drivers should turn in equal races at Monza and can easily expect to fill the balance of the points' finishes albeit behind the top three teams.

Sauber

All but last in the Championship requires drastic action from Sauber. A raft of technical developments at recent races was bolstered at the Monza test by new sidepods and engine cover. Adopting Ferrari-esque sidepods and a Williams-like fin of the engine cover has transformed the car visually, if not dynamically. A third step in the engine's development sees more power just when they need it, as does new fuel formulated by sponsor and supplier Petronas.

Giancarlo Fisichella's announcement of his contract with the team for 2004 will have de-stabilised Nick Heidfeld, and the rumour of Felipe Massa's return will not be doing Heinz Harald Frentzen's concentration any favours. With these distractions and the lack of potential point scoring outside the top four teams, Sauber appear unlikely to turn around their poor year.

Jordan

A destroyed car and injured driver were not what Jordan would have wanted from Hungary, neither were the repeated blow-ups from the expensive and supposedly proven Cosworth engine. Jordan ran some of the limited test days last week, but no major developments were seen. With no reasonable hope for points this weekend, Jordan's aim must simply be to keep clear of Minardi and get a race finish in.

Jaguar

While openly admitting the development is slowing on the R4, Hungary saw the team's and Mark Webber's best race this year. Going to Monza - scene of their best race last year - the team should be full of self-assurance. But engine power and reliability is not the Cosworth CR5's strong point, and Michelin's advantage will be cut on Italy's straights. So even if a top four pace is not in the team's sight this weekend, the closeness of the battle to BAR will be.

All but matched in both Championships with BAR, any points gained will be critical to Jaguar this weekend. As will Justin Wilson's pace in the second car - he has a possibility of a drive next year, and just three more chances to prove he deserves it. He's had more time in the car at the test last week, so he should be ready to judged on his results.

BAR

On balance, 2003 is a better year for BAR as a whole, but still the car's potential does not seem to be exposed and dreadful race reliability has hounded Jacques Villeneuve. The plus side is that Jenson Button's luck has been better and his race performances have brought in enough points to maintain the team in fifth place on the Constructors' Championship standings.

The Hondas engine program has failed to ignite as many predicted on their return to F1, as has their chassis program with BAR. But the team are talking up their chances this weekend, after their testing proved successful with better results from tyres, aero and chassis. Maybe a fortunate points' finish is possible, which may be enough to clear them of Jaguar and Toyota in the Championship before going to America.

Minardi

A rare appearance at an open test for Minardi last week saw new sidepods displayed, finally eschewing the triple flip-up layout run for the past two years. Even with this and other detail developments, the lowly specification Cosworth engine cannot propel the car fast enough to rate anywhere but last on the timesheets this weekend. With Justin Wilson having gone to Jaguar, on top of poor performances from Jos Verstappen and Nicolas Kiesa, there is once again little to expect from the team this weekend.

Toyota

Monza is Toyota's big chance to get a result in before the end of the year. Major developments on the car have been run in testing - a new W shaped front wing, new bargeboards and chassis setups have all aimed at getting the low-drag, kerb-crashing setup needed for Monza. While top speed is Toyota's strong point, the chassis has lacked composure over bumps and kerbs, so if this has been improved, a challenge to Renault or better could be in store this weekend.

Considering Olivier Panis's reputation for consistency, surprising to see F1 new boy Cristiano da Matta ahead of him in the Championship. However, it is only when the car's dreadful reliability record is reviewed that Olivier's 2-point deficit is put in better context.