Atlas F1 Magazine: The 2004 Chinese GP Preview

Shangai in China hosts the inaugural Chinese Grand Prix. The circuit was designed with a mix of fast and slow corners, combining technical sections and a couple of long straights. It is expected to be a high downforce track, emphasising low drag, drivable engines and excellent balance under braking. Temperatures are expected to be high, so effective brake and engine cooling is a factor. Neither tyre company has raced Formula One cars there, and the weather prediction is for a warm, dry weekend.

Following a dominant display by Ferrari in front of the tifosi at Monza, the circus visits the second brand new track of the year � in China. However, despite a comprehensive performance last time out, the scarlet juggernaut is not looking quite so unstoppable as they did in Bahrain � McLaren and Renault have both shown that there are weaknesses that can be exploited.

Whilst the circuit is an unknown, modern computer modelling is surprisingly accurate, so the teams already have a very good idea of how they expect their cars to perform and the characteristics that need to be emphasised. The tightening first turn at the end of the main straight will require good balance under braking; the slow corners and hairpins will require good mechanical grip; the high speed corners will emphasise aerodynamic downforce; and the three straights should offer some slipstreaming and overtaking opportunities for the brave.

A vital part of those simulations is the tyre companies' performance predictions. Although even wear is anticipated, the actual rate is an unknown that is going to depend on how the surface of the track has bedded in. Having estimated the range that this can take, the companies have to look at anticipating heat characteristics, as not only are the three straights going to allow temperatures to build, but the track temperature itself could exceed 50 degrees. Furthermore, the team's projected downforce settings and fuel loads are a further factor in the wear characteristic. Both companies are aware that if they get it wrong, they are handing victory to their competitor.

The decision for the best strategy for the weekend depends on tyre and brake wear rates; fuel loads are relatively easy to predict, if either is marginal then three stops is going to be the preferred option, but most teams are seriously looking at a two-stop race.

Although the new circuit should be a leveller, expectations are still that the biggest teams are the best prepared, so little should change in the pecking order. Ferrari have a solid package and Bridgestone have been strong this year, so they remain favourites, but if they miss a trick, especially at a circuit that should permit overtaking, Renault, BAR, Williams and McLaren are all going to be fighting to pick up the pieces.

Ford's announced departure has given the political atmosphere a kick, and as if this is not enough, the weekend will see the return of Jacques Villeneuve, filling in for the dismissed Jarno Trulli at Renault, and Ralf Schumacher, who has finally been declared safe after his spinal injury in the US Grand Prix. It has the makings of a memorable event.

"The lap starts on the long pit straight, we power along the 600 metre section reaching speeds that we estimate to be in the 320km/h mark in seventh gear as we pass underneath the impressive grandstand walkway. The first corner looks like it is very long and sweeps round to the right and is immediately followed by a right then left of turns two and three. Our speeds will probably drop quite low through here as it looks quite tight. As we exit turn three, we will have to push on the throttle to build up speed as we pass through the slight kinks of turns four and five that gently flick the track first left then right on the run down to turn six.

"We may hit 300 km/h along here before braking hard for the hairpin of six, which will see us drop down into first gear. Coming out of the hairpin there is a section of track that looks like it may be awesome to drive. There is a short straight that leads to a long, wide, sweeping S of seven and eight, with the track first curving to the left and then to the right.

"This section will probably be very high speed, maintaining as much as possible for the first section in particular and only lifting slightly for the apex of eight. The two almost 90-degree bends of nine and ten follow that take you onto a short straight, which leads to the tight left of eleven at the end of the straight. This will probably be in second gear and it takes you onto another long sweeping right hander, similar to the complex at the end of the pit straight. This double-apex bend swings us back round on ourselves onto a straight that runs parallel to the one we were just on. The corner is the widest section of the track and it is fairly long so we will be increasing our speed as we drive through it, all these factors may lead to possible overtaking here.

"The corner is also particularly important for a quick lap time as it swings the track round onto the longest straight, which is just over one kilometre. We need to ensure we have the maximum speed possible as we exit the corner so that we have the momentum to power along the back straight at speeds nearing 330km/h in seventh. A hard braking zone at the end of the straight for the two rights of fourteen and fifteen.

"This will probably see another overtaking opportunity as we will be able to slipstream any cars ahead on the track for the kilometre and pull alongside shortly before the end and hopefully take the position under braking. Again on the power for a short straight that takes you to the final corner, a 90-degree left-hander that sees you return to the pit straight."

After such a dominant performance in Monza, it would seem fair to believe that the only way Ferrari can lose a race is on the rare occasions a car fails, or when Bridgestone give up ground to Michelin. Needless to say, going to China with a dominant car that seems easy to set up, there is little expectation for this to change.

Ferrari's fortunes for the weekend should mostly come down to whether Bridgestone has made a mistake. The race package is strong enough that even when the tyre manufacturer has been a little conservative, giving up single lap performance and pole position to Michelin teams, it has rarely been a problem when it comes to race day. However, if the prediction for higher temperatures comes to pass, then the French tyre manufacturer will get a boost, and Ferrari could have their work cut out winning this race.

Williams have looked competitive at most of the circuits they visited, without really looking like winning a race this year. At the places where Ferrari have been weakest, other Michelin runners have stepped up their games and taken the wins. Whilst they are hoping to rectify that in China, the team have no decisive advantage over their closest Michelin competition.

Ralf Schumacher's return could be good news for the team. The German is becoming notorious for blowing hot and cold, but he was quick in testing, clearly looking happy to be back behind the wheel. The long break could see him returning refreshed and right on top of his game � at the very least, Antonio Pizzonia simply doesn't have Schumacher's race day experience. Either way, Juan Pablo Montoya is looking to recover from his disappointment after an engine mapping issue dismantled his race in Monza, where he might have finished ahead of the BARs.

The car has a powerful engine that should allow the team to carry plenty of downforce to build speed through the slower sections; the chassis is well balanced, and the brakes are efficient. They could, and should, put in a strong performance, with good points on the cards. However, the team's biggest question mark is how their Michelin-shod rivals will fare on this track: BAR, McLaren and Renault all have high expectations too.

This really has not been McLaren's year. First, they produce a car that struggles to compete with Saubers, then when they finally come up with a revision that puts performance back on the map, poor reliability has taken Kimi Raikkonen out from strong positions with surprising regularity. However, if they can get to the finish, then don't be surprised to see them shine in China.

Despite Renault's belief that the circuit is built for their cars and Ferrari's obvious strength, this is a circuit with should emphasise the revised McLaren's strengths. It is particularly fast and stable through high speed corners, has never struggled with braking, and is making far better use of the latest Mercedes engine. Although both Kimi Raikkonen and David Coulthard are capable of being on the pace, the Scot's well publicised problem with single lap qualifying does him no favours.

Nevertheless, in their current form, McLaren's high downforce package is the real dark horse of the Michelin field: they could spring a surprise here.

Although Ferrari have to be seen as hot favourites, Renault are heading to China with the attitude that the circuit was practically built to suit their car. It should reward stability under braking, efficient aerodynamics and a drivable engine over top end power: all characteristics of the current car. The two new, lighter weight chassis available for the weekend can only add to the team's optimism.

Having let Trulli go in order to bring Jacques Villeneuve on board, the team have to consider that the ex World Champion could take longer than the weekend to get up to speed: however, the French-Canadian is known for his natural ability to get the best out of a new car (he scored pole on his first appearance in Formula One, ahead of Damon Hill in a Williams), so it is within the realms of possibility that he will get right into the groove over the course of the weekend. The motivation to put one over his ex employer, BAR, can only add to that, making him a real wild card.

Fernando Alonso can't be expected to sit on his laurels this weekend either, though his focus has been questionable this year. Provided the team are able to keep the cars reliable, they are expecting to place both in the points.

Precisely how well BAR will go in China is only going to be revealed by the weekend, but the team are going their in strong spirits. Their main rivals have sacked an underperforming driver, and although the replacement is an ex World Champion, he is reasonably expected to take a little time to get right up to speed.

From their simulations, BAR expect the chassis to handle well, with the new aerodynamic components reducing drag and letting them get more downforce onto the car to improve stability under braking into the first corner. This has been an area where the team have given up ground to Renault in particular, so it has needed attention.

Work in testing has shown that the latest modifications on the car are living up to expectations. Having left Bahrain with a podium, and scoring third and fourth last weekend, BAR are looking to repeat that performance in China and confirming their second place in the Championship: but make no bones of it, the only result that counts is beating Renault this weekend.

Since the mid-season, Sauber's car has been developed well with the results of the new wind tunnel coming through nicely: add in the Ferrari engine and they can be expected to make a good showing at a circuit that should reward a powerful, driveable engine and low drag from a high downforce aerodynamic package.

However, with their fate tied to Bridgestone's form, Sauber have to be going to China with hopes of a clear tyre advantage. If Michelin are on form, then the team will struggle to compete with their top four teams, even before considering the gap to Ferrari.

News of Ford's departure from the sport at the end of the year notwithstanding, Jaguar are heading to China looking for a chance to show that the outfit are not a complete waste of time and money: a strong performance goes a long way to making a team appetising to a prospective buyer.

Mark Webber's future has been tied to Williams for some time, so he is not expected to be any more distracted than at other events this year. Christian Klien's experience will at least not be a disadvantage here: he needs to make the most of a chance to bring his performance up to that of his teammate.

The car has been faster and easier to drive in the second half of the season, with much of the improvement coming through changes to the aerodynamic package. Accordingly, the team are hoping the circuit will have them in a position to fight for points. Realistically, if Bridgestone have done their homework, this is a tall order unless the retirement count is excessive: too many other teams are simply better at this stage.

In-season developments have moved the Toyota chassis forward, but it has not brought the car in line with their rivals. The progress should mean that the car is at least moderately well balanced, whilst the improvements to aerodynamics offer the team a chance to perform on a track with the tricky high downforce/long straight balance than they managed in Malaysia.

Oliver Panis can be expected to put in another solid weekend, but his less experienced teammate is going to be in a position to answer some interesting questions. The circuit will be new to everyone, so if Ricardo Zonta wishes to remain in the sport beyond the end of the year, he will have to show that he can at least match Olivier Panis' pace for the weekend.

Prospects for the race are interesting. The team could be fast in qualifying, though race day prospects are poorer. Retirements at the front would leave them scrapping to get in to the points.

Although it is a new circuit and a new challenge, Jordan really cannot be looking forward to China, as it is expected to emphasise the weaknesses of their chassis. The car handles evilly under braking, which is going to hurt badly into at least the first corner, then the technical, relatively slow corners are going to call for high downforce. The team's high downforce package carries a high drag penalty, so cranking up the grip levels for the corners will leave the team exposed down the straights.

Nick Heidfeld can be expected to work on making the most of his package and out-perform the Minardi duo, while Timo Glock will have his second Grand Prix outing as he replaces Italian Giorgio Pantano. In any event, the team have no hope of getting into the points unless Michelin's tyres are too awful to last the distance.

If Minardi do anything more than make up numbers, this will be their best race of the season. Their car is still outdated and with Cosworth's future now in the air, there is no reason to believe that a better engine is in the offing either. The circuit is expected to be quite technical in some areas, making it awkward for inexperienced drivers to learn � even after a season in the sport. As usual, a good result is based on hoping for poor reliability from the competition and a well timed drop of rain.

The last new circuit that the circus went to was, in fact, earlier this year, where Bahrain hosted their inaugural event in some style. The place offered some interesting challenges for the teams, as fine grained sand was expected to cause all sorts of problems with the delicate mechanicals, whilst high temperatures following on from Malaysia should also stretch the cars abilities to last the distance. Michelin were hoping that high temperatures would give them a chance to put their teams on a par with Ferrari, who had started the season by seeing Schumacher win both the opening races from pole.

Despite a slow start to his weekend, Michael Schumacher again eased out in front of the crowd come Saturday, putting his Ferrari comfortably on pole ahead of team-mate Rubens Barrichello, bringing the team their second front row lockout of the season.

Offering some hope to Michelin runners, Juan Montoya was looking comfortably set for a front row spot until a mistake at the last corner took the edge of his lap. As running on soft Michelins, he looked very quick on a single lap. Despite running harder tyres, Ralf Schumacher was not much slower; his fourth place putting Williams into a strong position for the race.

The third row was filled with BARs, Jenson Button seeing Takuma Sato outperforming his more experienced team-mate for the first time in the year. Button was disappointed after some excellent running in all the sessions leading up to qualifying that made it seem possible to fight for pole.

Jarno Trulli was the first man to escape his team-mate, coming in seventh with an unspectacular lap for Renault. Fernando Alonso should have been able to match the pace, but inadequately warmed up brakes saw him overshoot into turn one, costing a full second, before making mistakes attempting to make up time: seventeenth was a disappointing result.

The Toyota's looked good in eighth and ninth, both Olivier Panis and Cristiano da Matta clearly happier here than in the opening races. Other notables included Kimi Raikkonen, who didn't attempt qualifying after his engine expired during Friday practice, and Christian Klien out-qualified Mark Webber in the Jaguars.

Surprising the entire paddock, Sunday saw rain sweep across the circuit, followed by a fog of light sand that caused temperatures to drop and the track to become even more slippery. The cool temperatures presented a problem for the Michelin runners, whose tyres were all optimised for hot running.

At the outset, the Ferraris ran away easily, with Montoya staving off a fast starting Sato for fourth and fifth into the corner. Trulli slid inside Ralf Schumacher, but lost the place again on the exit of the corner when the Williams was able to get on the power earlier. Button and Panis completed the top eight. Alonso stopped for a new front wing at the start of the lap, refuelling to ensure he'd only require two more stops, keeping to three overall.

The Ferrari drivers stretched their lead from the outset, Schumacher comfortably extending his lead over Barrichello whilst the Brazilian drew away from Montoya. Whilst the front looked processional, there was strong battling for positions further back with drivers overtaking effectively on the circuit. Embarrassingly for McLaren, Jaguar's Klien passed Raikkonen easily, before running wide and doing it again.

Nearer the front, Sato was being pushed by Ralf, who dived down the inside at the end of the straight. The Japanese refused to yield, staying alongside and holding the inside for the next turn � only to discover the Williams driver failed to give him room, making contact on turn-in. The Williams span, but both drivers were able to continue.

On lap eight, Raikkonen's engine gave up in a very public fashion, just before the first round of stops. The Ferrari's retained the lead comfortably � Barrichello remaining in front of Montoya despite stalling.

The order remainder the same, with Ferrari controlling the race ahead if Montoya, Trulli, Sato and Button, until Sato ran wide on lap fifteen and damaged his front wing, causing him to pit for a replacement and drop to fourteenth place. This at least put him within spitting distance of Alonso, who was fighting a tough battle with Massa just ahead.

The next round of stops saw Button pass Trulli for fourth, with Coulthard sixth ahead of Webber, who struggled and eventually failed to contain the charging Alonso. Ralf Schumacher touched Fisichella whilst fighting for position, causing the Sauber to spin. Sato passed Coulthard cleanly before starting the final round of stops, where little changed.

Before the race was over, however, Montoya's Williams developed a gearbox problem that promoted Button to the podium, and Coulthard's developed a terminal fault that even a stop at the pits couldn't cure.

At the end, however, this race will basically be remembered as another dominant display by Ferrari.

Points paying positions - pitstops & total stoppage

1. M.Schumacher    Ferrari 3 - 80.934
2. Barrichello Ferrari 3 - 85.127
3. Button    BAR Honda 3 - 86.575
4. Trulli    Renault 3 - 78.236
5. Sato BAR Honda - 85.163
6. Alonso Renault 3 - 87.329
7. R.Schumacher Williams BMW 3 - 83.751
8. Webber Jaguar-Cosworth 3 - 85.009

Classified: 17 from 20 starters

Fastest lap: M.Schumacher, 1:30.252

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