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The Atlas F1 2004 Gamble



 
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The Atlas F1 Drivers WC Gamble

The Atlas F1 Constructors WC Gamble



    (ABr)

1. Montoya; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Barrichello; 5. Alonso
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

In any list I produce of my top drivers I have problems getting my head to rule my heart. I like Juan Pablo and the WilliamsF1 team and always want them to do well. This year I have a feeling in my water it may be the year for them. Ferrari's reliability may be their biggest advantage over the opposition, but I do agree with Frank Williams who said many years ago that there is no such thing as total domination, and most successful periods run their course.

I personally believe Montoya made a mistake signing for McLaren, but I don’t know all the circumstances so have to believe he and his management company have made what they consider the right decision for his long term career. Having said that, Juan Pablo has two tasks this year: most important is to win the World Championship. But if he does not do this then he must at least finish ahead of Kimi Raikkonen. If he arrives at McLaren having finished behind their Finnish star in the 2004 ratings then he will be very much on the back foot before the 2005 season starts. Likewise, Raikkonen will want to finish ahead of his 2005 teammate.

However, it would be a stupid person who discounts Michael Schumacher when considering who will be the 2004 World Champion. He is the complete driver. He showed in 2003 that when the chips are down he can still rise to the occasion.


    (KL)

1. Barrichello; 2. Montoya; 3. Alonso; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. M.Schumacher
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

This is the year in which Michael's legendary luck will break, through a combination of accidents and mechanical failures. Ferrari will decide to throw their weight behind Rubens, who will come through in style for a well deserved Championship. Alonso will grab enough podiums to place third, with Michael a close fifth. Montoya and Ralf Schumacher between them will pick up enough successes to give the makes cup to Williams, so both will be in the top five of the drivers' ranking. McLaren's restructuring isn't yet complete enough to put its drivers in the top ranking, with each taking points from the other.


    (ABa)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. R.Schumacher; 4. Montoya; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Seven for Schumi? it will be tougher than ever but he can count on the team being solidly behind him and that could make all the difference. I'd love to be proved wrong and Kimi could do it. I'd also like to see DC do well. The Williams drivers are both potential champions but could take points off each other... and Renault could make all the pundits look stupid by the end of the year.


    (RH)

1. Montoya; 2. Raikkonen; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Alonso; 5. R.Schumacher
1. Williams; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Can Michael and Ferrari win for yet another year? Will Michelin's momentum continue over from last season? The answer to the second question will decide the outcome of the first, and that’s going to be the main story of the season as far as the Championship is concerned. Michelin will dominate Bridgestone and therefore I am picking Montoya to narrowly edge out Raikkonen for the drivers’ title. Schumacher senior will use all his experience to keep his Ferrari in the hunt but in the end it will not be enough. Ralf and Fernando Alonso will ague over the minor placing with the Spaniard just getting the nod.

Williams will come out of the blocks strongly in Melbourne and their early season strength will see them through to their first Championship since 1997. I think the team is hungry, focused and ready. Despite McLaren’s low-key pre-season testing form I can’t see the Woking outfit being anything but a major challenger all season and I think they will outscore Ferrari for the first time since 1998. Renault will be the best of the rest ahead of a rejuvenated BAR team that could well be the surprise package of the year, now that a professional management team is in charge and has had time to affect change.


    (RB)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Alonso; 5. Button
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Michael Schumacher will capitalise on key weaknesses among his rivals to squeak another close WDC title, with Montoya reversing his narrow loss to Raikkonen as 2003 WDC runner-up. Alonso will continue to grow in stature, and Button will make a refreshing addition to the established top runners. Williams will pip Ferrari for the constructors' title, and Renault and BAR will mount their best Championship efforts yet, although not quite enough to challenge the big three consistently. Other than that, it’s business as usual.


    (WG)

1. Raikkonen; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Montoya; 4. Alonso; 5. Button
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Kimi Raikkonen is seemingly unflappable. He managed to steer his ageing McLaren to a close second in the title race last year and, presuming the Williams pair will be fighting each other for race wins, he should rack up enough points to beat Michael Schumacher this time. Alonso is hot property and the Renault will push him close to the big three but not close enough, while Button will relish the opportunity to lead a more focussed BAR-Honda team forward this season.

Williams, with two strong drivers racing each other hard, will rack up a lot of points and as long as Frank Williams and Patrick Head keep tempers under control the pace of the new FW26 should see them through. Ferrari have a strong pairing whereas McLaren do not, and that is why they will take second. Again, Renault will finish fourth but will finish stronger than ever before, while BAR-Honda are now a year behind Renault and will put in a performance equivalent to their Anglo-French rivals in 2003.


    (DAC)

1. Raikkonen; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Montoya; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Alonso
1. Williams; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Trying to pick winners based on winter testing is kind of like playing darts blindfolded - you know there's something to aim at somewhere, but you're relying on what you are told rather than what you can see. Has Raikkonen learnt enough last year to move up that final step? Is Michael Schumacher still motivated enough to challenge again now that he's won more Championships than anyone else? Will Montoya be able to work with Williams effectively now that it's official he's leaving, and will they move him away from the new technology towards the end of the year? Only time will tell.

For what it's worth the Williams has been fast in testing, and they probably felt that they lost the Championship last year rather than Ferrari won it, so they'll want to sort that out. No one knows what McLaren has up their sleeve, but concentrating on sorting out one car rather than two will help. Ferrari are the only top runner on Bridgestones, which could be a plus but didn't seem to be last year. Renault and BAR seem very fast, and Sauber seems to be running a de facto Ferrari. Whatever happens, it looks like it will be a classic year for Formula One.


    (TO)

1. Montoya; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Alonso; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Button
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

No driver has ever won a Championship after leaving Williams, so for 2005-McLaren-bound Montoya, this is definitely his year and that of the Williams team to finally climb back to the top of the heap. Michael Schumacher will not benefit from ill-judged and picayune penalties against other drivers in the "let 'em race" culture we hope for in 2004 and, combined with a diminution in his qualifying prowess in favor of Ferrari engine reliability, in the races we will find him fighting his way through the pack more than usual.

Alonso and Rakkonen will be hounding JPM and MS all the way, with Renault finally getting on the podium this season a smidgen more than McLaren. When taciturn Kimi speaks as negatively as he has in the off-season about Adrian Newey's latest creation, we know something is wrong in Paragon.

After leading two races in 2003 and outgunning Jacques Villeneuve, this is the year for Jenson Button to show that he has the goods to be the next British WDC. Having finished five times in 4th place, Jenson will finally garner his first podium finish and more in a season when Honda will get back into F1 with both feet, headed back to the salad days of 1988-91.


    (PE)

1. Montoya; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Alonso; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Raikkonen
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

If anything can be read from pre-season testing is that Ferrari still have the best driver but not the best package. Williams have the stronger package but not the best of relationships with their drivers. McLaren have fast drivers but their car seems to be struggling for reliability. Renault are looking good but it's still too early for them. And BAR have suddenly found the speed they've been searching for year. With all that in mind, choosing this year's favorites is harder than ever.

In any case, despite the fact that he will take his number one to McLaren in 2005, I believe Montoya will be the man this year. I can't, or I don't want to, imagine a fifth consecutive title for Michael Schumacher, who will be handicapped by his tyres once more. Fernando Alonso will challenge for victories quite often, and so will Ralf, although he will still lack consistency. And Kimi Raikkonen will suffer from McLaren's drop in form. And in the likely case that I get it all wrong, I'll blame pre-season testing.


    (TK)

1. Montoya; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. R.Schumacher; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. BAR; 5. Renault

Judging by the way they are shaping up, the big issues for 2004 look set to be: who can catch the front two teams? Williams and Ferrari are clearly set to start the season in good form, though Renault and BAR have been showing some interestingly good times in testing. McLaren, meanwhile, despite struggling with reliability, are always a force to be reckoned with, and even if they get a slow start to the year can be counted upon to close the gap as the year progresses.

The Williams pairing, as usual, have little to choose between them; however, I believe this could be Montoya's year, and he stands every chance of taking the title to McLaren in 2005. It would be a surprise to see Michael Schumacher anywhere other than challenging for the title again, and of the remainder, Kimi Raikkonen is a consistent performer. If McLaren get their act together, he could even win it.


    (CS)

1. Raikkonen; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Montoya; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Barrichello
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

Picking the top five drivers this year immediately brings out five obvious contenders, but selecting their order is trickier. At least with the top five teams we have the option of picking the best of the rest. I'll put Kimi top of the list as he will be on Michelins and have the full support of his team. This forces Michael Schumacher into the second spot. Finding a reason to split the Williams drivers into either third or fourth leaves Juan on top, as he would be the "least worst" of the drivers to cope with the team politics in the final throes of the Championship. Rubens is a safe choice for fifth, although he could well be pressurised by Renault or BAR drivers.

Ferrari come out on top of the Constructors' Championship as a result of their better two-car finishing record, but closely fought by Williams who'll lose out with more DNFs between the drivers. Renault will be placed third down to their more equal drivers, leaving McLaren trailing due to Coulthard's lack of performance. BAR will be best of the rest, more down to a few podium finishes than their total number of finishes.


    (DR)

1. R.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. Montoya; 5. Alonso
1. Williams; 2. McLaren; 3. Ferrari; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Forget testing form; concentrate instead on race simulations. Remember when Jean Alesi and Prost-Acer headed the time sheets? By the end of the year all-Bleu was gone. This year the winner will be a Schumacher - but he'll be running Michelin on a BMW-Williams.

Ralf will, come the final round, pull all together to just squeeze in from McLaren's Kimi Raikkonen, who will battle in the early races - just when Williams and Renault pick up the best points. But, expect the French outfit to tail off from Hungary onwards as the real heavies get their second wind, ultimately leaving Fernando Alonso fifth in the drivers' stakes and Michael Schumacher - as best Bridgestone runner - third, and an inconsistent Montoya fourth. Changed weather patterns, though, could blow the best laid plans apart.

The Constructors' Championship is a feathery touch less complicated: Michelin from Bridgestone, with only Michael's brilliance preventing complete domination by the French tyre company. So, it will be Williams from McLaren, Ferrari, Renault and BAR - the latter irritating the Top Four on occasion, but not seriously troubling them regularly.


    (CR)

1. Montoya; 2. R.Schumacher; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Barrichello; 5. M.Schumacher
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Toyota

I've said it before and been proved wrong, but I really do think this will be Williams’ year – the real question is which of their drivers will be World Champion. Logically I feel I should plump for Ralf, as McLaren-bound Montoya is unlikely to get all the best secret gismos towards the end of the year, but my instinct says Montoya’s guts and flamboyance will win through. I think Michelin will have the upper hand over Bridgestone this year so I am hypothesising that Michael Schumacher may become a little disillusioned, allowing Barrichello to surge ahead. Surely it has to happen some time?


    (DOC)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Barrichello; 3. Montoya; 4. da Matta; 5. Alonso
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. Toyota; 4. Renault; 5. McLaren

Although I don't think that this is really Michael Schumacher's year - it all has to unravel sometime. But it is perhaps simply that Ferrari as a team has that slight edge and that little extra something - which Michelin was on the receiving end last year in the closing races - that makes me feel is yet another ho-hum coronation for Herr Schumacher.

Williams, Toyota, Renault, and Ferrari 2 - er, ah, Sauber - will nip at the heels of Scuderia Ferrari from time-to-time, but barring something on the order of a complete meltdown by Ferrari they will win a few races but not even challenge for the championship - there will not be a repeat of last season's near miss to ruin the streak. McLaren? Good question, bad answer if pre-season form doesn't change during the season. The surprise might be Jenson Button and BAR, but then again Honda might actually withdraw and concentrate on American racing. Look for Jordan to perhaps not finish the season. Jaguar will also toss in the towel at the end of the season - at least they will openly seriously consider it. Minardi? Ciao as well.


    (MB)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Raikkonen; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Alonso
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Michael Schumacher will once again be Champion this year. Not necessarily because the Ferrari is the fastest car but because it's the most reliable one. Williams and McLaren will be strong but like last year they will be too inconsistent to win any of the Championships. Outsiders for this year are Renault, BAR and Sauber. The outcome of both Championships will depend on the tyres. If Bridgestone fail to match Michelin, Ferrari could be in for a very difficult year even if they are the fastest and most reliable.


    (ML)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Alonso; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Barrichello
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

With both titles going to the wire last year, and considering the results of winter testing so far, it is easy to expect a very uncertain season. In the end, experience will likely prevail, with yet another title falling in Michael Schumacher's greedy grasp, as he probably won't be making the same early-season mistakes he made last year. Montoya, however, will be extremely close: the disappointments in late 2003 will have further matured him as a racer, and his departure to McLaren in 2005 won't hinder his chances for the current season.

Alonso will shine: his talent and his package should allow him to challenge consistently for wins. While Raikkonen is expected to be a strong contender again, he will need to fight more agressively than he did last year, especially now that his McLaren looks slightly inferior among the top four. While Barrichello is becoming more and more consistent year after year, it is doubtful whether it will be enough to mount a realistic Championship challenge. However, stranger things have happened.

Can Ferrari reach an unprecedented sixth consecutive Constructors' Championship? If the Bridgestone tyres will be on par overall with the Michelin rubber over the season, why not? However, the Williams 'Walrus' has shined in testing so far, even if it's been said to be fast over only one lap and not for long-distance runs. Renault can be expected to become a force to be reckoned with, while McLaren seem to either be lacking pace or to be sandbagging. In any case, their reliability doesn't seem top notch, even if it should be enough to keep BAR at bay. The Honda-powered team looks to be the most improved mid-field outfit, with a switch to Michelin rubber seemingly paying off nicely.


    (MS)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. R.Schumacher; 4. Alonso; 5. Barrichello
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. Toyota

It will be a close one between Schumacher and Raikkonen, with Barrichello's help giving the reigning Champion the edge. Williams will likely give Ralf the clear number one status, allowing little Schumacher to rise above the rest of the field. Alonso will be near as well, but his young age might cost him some points. Barrichello rounds out the top 5 simply because of Ferrari's strength. Montoya falls just outside the top 5 because he's no longer Frank Williams' top priority.

Moreover, the 2005 move of Montoya to McLaren will be the key to Ferrari winning again. Both Williams and McLaren will suffer because they won't have 2 drivers with the team in mind. I see Renault coming close, but not quite there because of Jarno Trulli's eternal bad luck. Toyota will be the best of the rest at some distance, closely followed by Sauber.


    (RK)

1. Montoya; 2. Alonso; 3. R.Schumacher; 4. Raikkonen; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

Probably one of the most difficult seasons to predict in recent years. Not only are four strong Michelin teams emerging from winter testing but also Ferrari must be ranked as the dark horse of the season as a strong race from their tyre supplier should guarantee victory while a weak performance might leave them without points.

The wild card this season is the number of wet races, as it seems like Michelin have been unable to bridge the performance gap to Bridgestone evident at the US Grand Prix last year. In a relatively rainy season then I would expect either Ferrari driver to clinch the crown as Barrichello must now too be ranked as a genuine contender based on his impressive form late last year.


    (MG)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Montoya; 4. Barrichello; 5. Alonso
1. Ferrari; 2. Williams; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

This year is even tougher to pick than usual, because I'm not convinced that any of the 'Big Three' will arrive in Melbourne with a seriously strong package. I'd expect Michael to win the title again, but he'll do it through consistency rather than outright domination. Kimi will come on stronger as the year goes on, while JPM will be the stronger of a generally inconsistent driver pairing at Williams - if he can iron out his tendency to make errors at critical moments. Rubens will do as Rubens does, and Alonso will add more podium silverware to his collection.

While it's too early to make a solid call on Ferrari's F2004, it's probably safe to bet that at the very least, it won't be a dud. But this is the kind of year where a reasonable car with a reasonable engine and a strong driver pairing will be all you need, and Ferrari has that. Having said that, there is once again a question mark over Bridgestone, as pre-season testing would seem to give Michelin the upper hand at the moment.

Williams will produce a good, fast car but does not appear to have a driver capable of sustaining a Championship campaign over an entire year, which will cost the team valuable points. Testing would suggest that McLaren are in for a tough opening few races but will improve as the year goes on, and there's every chance that Renault will close the gap a bit - especially if their engine is as good as it's rumoured to be. And finally, expect some good things from a more cohesive BAR.


    (PR)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Raikkonen; 3. Barrichello; 4. Montoya; 5. Coulthard
1. Ferrari; 2. McLaren; 3. Williams; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

Business as usual, but for once I'm expecting Rubens Barrichello to see the fruits of some good luck this season. Moreover, in what should be the closest Constructors' Championship for some years, I'm expecting the men from Maranello to once again show that Italian really is best.


    (DW)

1. Montoya; 2. M.Schumacher; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Alonso; 5. R.Schumacher
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

I never find it easy choosing my gamble, but this year is the hardest yet. I didn't expect 2003 to be as close a fight as it was, but this year I am expecting a close battle between the top three and possibly four teams. I don't think Michael can do it again, but I'm not quite sure who will take the title either. I feel the best chance will be with a Williams driver, and Montoya could continue a long line of Williams World Champions who drive for a different team the next year! The constructors battle should see Williams grab the title they just missed in 2003, with Ferrari, McLaren and Renault close behind, and BAR continuing to show improved form throughout the year.


    (MJ)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Alonso; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. Renault; 4. McLaren; 5. BAR

This is the hardest gamble I've ever attempted. Williams appears to have the best car in the pre-season, but I've lost my faith in Juan Pablo Montoya's decision-making process. McLaren's new car looks at best underdone, at worst uncompetitive, thus blighting Kimi Raikonen's chances. On that basis I've given Michael Schumacher a seventh World Championship as the field will simply hand it to him.

Fernando Alonso will be the star of the year and pick up regular podiums and a win or two, as long as the engine's OK, keeping with Montoya as hiss ability to pluck the occasional driver-induced DNF will keep him from the title. Ralf will have the car but not the consistency and Rubens will have the consistency but not the car. I have no idea what to do with Raikkonen, as it's hard to say how far McLaren have slid, but come mid year I think Montoya will be watching his 2005 team with mounting horror.

What goes for the drivers largely applies to constructors. This year I add BAR to the top five. The Honda backed team have been surging the last couple of years and I think Button and Sato will be too good for the enigmatic Toyota, the 2003 blue painted Ferrari and Jaguar who may be developing a Ferrari-like single driver outlook.


    (BT)

1. Montoya; 2. Raikkonen; 3. M.Schumacher; 4. R.Schumacher; 5. Barrichello
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

I expect this to be a bit of a strange year. On the face of it, the rules changes don't appear to be as startling as last years, yet a combination of single usage engines, and 2 in 1 qualifying could be critical. Montoya is still something of a wild card, but I think BMW horsepower and Michelin tires should see him in an especially comfortable position, especially given that he has nothing to lose with his move to Mclaren next year.

Kimi showed what he has last year and could be called a favourite, but I wonder if he'll have the horsepower to compete on a regular basis. Schumacher might fight a rear-guard action with the Bridgestones if last year is anything to go by. If Bridgestone get the edge, look for MS to upset my standings and add another Drivers' Chanpionship to his Resume.


    (BG)

1. M.Schumacher; 2. Montoya; 3. Raikkonen; 4. Alonso; 5. Button
1. Williams; 2. Ferrari; 3. McLaren; 4. Renault; 5. BAR

I might as well have picked names from a hat... with two weeks to go before the 2004 season, and for the first time in several years, I truly have no idea how this season is going to pan out. There are too many unknown factors to take into consideration: how will the new one-engine-per-weekend rule affect the order; what will the extended, 18-GP long calendar do to the challenge; how good (or disappointing) the new cars are; and above all, what will the upcoming 2005 reshuffle in the drivers line up of the top teams do to the motivation and ambition of the potential contenders. With Montoya, Raikkonen, Button, Ralf Schumacher - and even Michael Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello - out to prove a point, there's no telling who will end up on top. One thing's for sure: it's going to be interesting.


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