1997 Season Preview |
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by Max Galvin, England |
After what feels like the longest off season ever, the 1997 FIA Formula One World Championship is almost upon us, and it is time for the now customary season preview. On this occasion, my opinions will be accompanied by those of another Atlas editor, Paul Rushworth.
For the last 5 seasons, Goodyear have supplied all of the teams in Formula One, making the job of the observer trying to predict a race or season a lot easier. This season, however, the Japanese tyre company Bridgestone have entered F1 and they mean business.
In preseason testing, Bridgestone have held the upper hand, with their wet tyres in particular being around 6 seconds a lap faster than the Goodyear variant. Several of the teams who are running on Goodyears have expressed concern that the American company may not have taken the threat seriously enough and have been caught slacking. The tests so far indicate a massive advantage for the Bridgestone rubber, and while Goodyear have pulled a little back, I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of the "Big Four" on Japanese tyres in 1998.
While Bridgestone seem to have the performance edge, Goodyear have the track knowledge and experience of F1 that may enable them to keep the competitive edge at most tracks. However, regardless of the individual performance of any team, Goodyear provide tyres for all the "Big Four" and as such will certainly have the Champion team and driver to promote it's services in 1998.
TWR Arrows-Yamaha Bridgestone
After all the hype towards the end of last season and over the release of the car, TWR get my tip for the biggest disappointment of 1997. The chassis was produced early so that the team would have plenty of time to hone the car into a race winner. Reality has, however, made a mockery of these plans as the car has stumbled from one problem to another. The minor problems (water leaks, sensor failures etc.) have been so frequent that the team haven't even been able to test the previously unreliable Yamaha engine. Things have got so bad that recently, Pedro Diniz was obliged to pull off the Silverstone circuit after less than one lap. Yamaha and TWR engineers are said to have cured the problems of last years engine and have a further two evolutions planned during the season. On paper, TWR are the biggest team to move over to Bridgestone, but in reality the tyres aren't much use unless they are reliable. The chassis is said to be reasonably good, but lack of testing will tell when the first shots are fired in Melbourne.
Damon Hill the reigning World Champion is facing his first full F1 season without a win and has no hope of retaining his crown. Things are so bad that a podium could be doubtful unless we see retirements on the scale of those seen at Monaco in 1996. When running alone, Damon can be relied upon to drive smoothly and get the car to the finish, but his ability in traffic is still suspect. This is sure to cause serious problems in 1997 as Damon will be racing in the pack and fighting with drivers much more accustomed to the cut and thrust of close racing.
Pedro Diniz, although much improved, shouldn't expect much out of 1997. When he signed for TWR, the team looked like potential regulars on the podium (or so Tom Walkinshaw would have had us believe), but for the reasons mentioned above, this is far from true. If his experienced team-mate is looking at a lean year, Pedro cannot expect much in the way of points unless Lady Luck smiles on him. As for those who say he may turn out to be faster than Hill… I seriously doubt it.
Paul's view:
It is shaping up to be a tough year for Arrows. Problems with the new car have been
all too frequent and despite the Number 1 on the lead car, the expectations for success
in 1997 are limited. Damon Hill has always looked troubled in overtaking others, and
in the midfield he will find himself in the middle of a lot of battles for position. Pedro
Diniz will doubtless spring no surprises this year - his goal of World Champion will
have to wait.
Rothmans Williams-Renault Goodyear
Williams start 1997 looking as strong as they did this time last year. The final Adrian Newey-designed chassis, the FW19, looks like the fastest car in the field at the moment, and both Williams drivers are regularly topping the timesheets at any test they attend. In my article in the first Winter Issue I spoke about 1997 being their swan-song, but Renault will now be with them until the end of 1999 (albeit under the badge of Meccachrome). The RS9 may have been unpopular with Jacques Villeneuve when he first drove it, but it now appears to be all it's predecessors were in terms of power and driveability. Undoubtedly Williams will claim it's ninth Constructors' Championship in 1997.
Jacques Villeneuve enters the 1997 season knowing that this year is his make or break year. Last year, his inexperience was the excuse for not pushing Damon closer, but there are still those who were not convinced by the level of performance the Canadian put into his racing. This year he has no excuse and must win the title to silence his critics. Testing times have generally been faster than his new team-mate when both drivers have been on track at the same time so one battle at least is looking in his favour. But as they say, "Testing is testing". A hard fought battle will should see Villeneuve emerge as 1997 Drivers' Champion.
Heinz-Harald Frentzen is hailed by many as the man to beat Schumacher. At Sauber he has generally been faster than his team-mates, but like his countryman, has always had the benefit of having the team built around him. A great racer, but not always good in qualifying, Frentzen is a driver who has been able to use his car as an excuse for poor performance (rightly or wrongly), but needs to prove that he is as good as the hype if he is to keep his reputation.
Paul's view:
The team must remain the absolute favourite for the Constructors Championship, and
indeed the Drivers Championship. The real question is which driver will claim the
crown. While Villeneuve enjoys the stability of not changing teams for 1997, I still
have questions about his outright pace. Heinz-Harald Frentzen joins Williams with a
huge reputation to live up to. The early season may tip slightly in the favour of
Villeneuve, but I expect Frentzen to be the victor as the season progresses.
Marlboro Scuderia Ferrari Goodyear
Ferrari enter every season with the fans saying "This will be the year!", yet the Scuderia never quite manage to deliver the goods. 1996 promised much but despite 3 wins, delivered little. John Barnard was told to keep the design simple to avoid the problems that dogged the innovative but unstable 1996 chassis. The F310B looks like a Williams crossed with bits of all the other leading teams 1996 cars, but sadly doesn't run like it. The now traditional engine failures as well gearbox and electrical problems have slowed the progress somewhat, but both Michael Schumacher and Eddie Irvine are said to be happier with the F310B than with their previous mount. The new engine although sidelined for the first race or two is said to be a significant improvement over the last one and if the chassis development, the Tifosi should have some wins to cheer about even though a title looks out of reach.
Michael Schumacher starts 1997 the name way as 1996, with a half-decent car and with nobody expecting too much. In 1996 the car let him down frequently, but when it ran well, it could be attributed to his performance in it. The German is consistently fast, aggressive, and tenacious and can never be ruled out of a race completely. 1997 should offer wins and a few podiums, but the Drivers' title will have to wait for another year.
Eddie Irvine is one of the unknowns of modern Formula One. Eddie is undoubtedly fast in qualifying (which he says is the mark of real speed), but his racing often lets him down. If Ferrari allow him to have a fair share of the testing duties, he will be snapping at his team-mate's heels most Saturdays. However, if he does get the testing and fails to perform, his reputation will be left in tatters. Personally, I think the Irishman will be challenging for podiums regularly and may even manage to score his first win with a little luck.
Paul's view:
Try as I might, I still have trouble with the phrase: Ferrari, World Champions. There
can be no question of Schumacher's ability, but the chances of success in the Ferrari
are limited, this year at least. Irvine must be looking for a huge improvement over
1996 after what can only be described as a nightmare. Wins are certainly on the cards
at Ferrari, but they may find themselves looking over their shoulder, or worse,
looking ahead at Benetton.
Mild Seven Benetton-Renault Goodyear
Recent tests have gone a long way to erase the painful memories of a dismal 1996 season. The new Renault powered B197 has been designed so that it is more to it's drivers taste, and in preseason tests, this shows. Gerhard Berger has been in the top 3 at almost every test he has attended, usually beating Jean Alesi by a whisker. Benetton managed to get the car finished before Christmas and have been testing extensively to ensure that the car is ready for the first race. Reliability was the Achilles heel of the team in early 1996 and the bulk of the testing has gone into checking every component. The Renault, as mentioned before, is superb and its reliability gives the team one less worry.
Gerhard Berger has now gone without a win since the German Grand Prix in 1994 and in the B197 finally has a car capable of taking him back to the top step of the podium. On occasions in 1996 (Germany for example) he showed what he was capable of only to be let down by the engine. Another driver who can never be counted out until the very end of the race, 1997 should see a comeback for the Austrian (a win at home perhaps?).
Jean Alesi is another driver I feel has a point to prove this season. Even though he finished high in the points in 1996, he never looked strong enough to win a race on merit. Unless he can look like a race winner in 1997, his options in 1998 could be very limited. This said, Alesi is always a good prospect for the other podium positions and should add to his points haul regularly this year.
Paul's view:
After the disaster of 1996, the team must win this year and on the face of testing
performance is well placed to do just that. Jean Alesi and Gerhard Berger are equally
poised to claim victory, and the team should beat Ferrari in the constructors. Beating
Schumacher in the Drivers Championship might be something else…
West McLaren-Mercedes Goodyear
The launch of the MP4/12 was the most lavish F1 has ever seen, with the Spice Girls and Jamiroquai performing sets during the performance to mark the arrival of the new colour scheme of West McLaren-Mercedes. The car itself was nothing new, having been seen in testing several weeks before. On the surface the chassis looks to be much the same as the 1996 car. This we are told is partly true, but both drivers and team think that the problems that the old car had have been eliminated in the new one. The testing times seem to back this up, with Mika Hakkinen in particular impressing enormously recently. With the Mercedes power at their backs both drivers should be fighting for podiums and possibly wins.
Mika Hakkinen is another of the great unknowns. His talent and speed is unquestioned, but his judgement and racecraft are often suspect. Whatever the car is like, Mika can extract the best from it in qualifying, usually to the detriment of his team-mate. Testing times have been very encouraging and Mika should be looking at podiums and wins (if everything falls right).
David Coulthard is vying with Eddie Irvine as the leading British driver in 1997, and has the potential to be the better of the two. As I have said before, when the car suits David, he will qualify it well and race well, but when it is bad, he is. Much was expected of the Scotsman in 1996, but the MP4/11 let him down. His testing times seem to indicate that this season he will fulfil his potential a little more fully.
Paul's view:
Mercedes must be looking more than anxious at last year results. Benetton and Ferrari
still look out of reach and fourth place in the Constructors looks to be a continuing
theme for McLaren. Mika Hakkinen should still be the man to beat at McLaren with
David Coulthard's future beginning to look grim.
Benson & Hedges Total Jordan-Peugeot Goodyear
As many people have already pointed out, 1997 is the crunch year for Jordan. 1996 saw a massive increase in budget, and this should start to show in the 1997 car and it's development. In 1996 Eddie Jordan announced that 2 young drivers was the wrong way to go as far as developing a car, but in 1997 he has changed tack completely and has apparently decided that it is the right way to go. The Jordan chassis was the weak link in 1996 and Gary Anderson has gone to great lengths to make sure that the 197 is much better than the 196. Computer simulations have the car almost 2 seconds faster over a single lap and the drivers comments seem favourable. The 2 seconds isn't enough as both drivers are almost 2 seconds a lap slower than the Williams and Benetton cars at most test. Despite the hopes pinned on this team, they will not win a race this year and will struggle to reach the podium.
Ralf Schumacher is possibly the most hyped rookie driver in F1 history, considering his previous experience. A testing programme rivalling that of Jacques Villeneuve in 1996 has made sure that he is ready for his qualifying debut, but I am unsure about whether he will be able to hold it together in a race. Big brother Michael says that Ralf is better than he was when he started in F1, but I doubt the raw talent is there. Points are likely, but not too many.
Giancarlo Fisichella is the real jewel in Jordan's crown. The young Italian driver is considered to be one of the very best his country has produced and he impressed in the ITC where he drove for Alfa Romeo in 1996. A handful of starts for Minardi showed promise, and a year in the Jordan (he is signed for two but is tipped for Benetton in 1998) should give him the experience he lacks. Not many points, but should beat his team-mate in the standings.
Paul's view:
1997 could be the year that Jordan finally breaks through. Armed with what should be
described as the best young driver pairing in Formula One. With their works Peugeot
contract expiring at the end of this year, Jordan must win. Ralf Schumacher joined the
team in what he expected would be number one position, but with the addition of the
very strong young Italian driver, Giancarlo Fisichella, is likely to single one of the
team battles to watch in 1997. Expect Fisichella to come out on top - just.
Equipe Prost Gauloises Blondes-Mugen Honda Bridgestone
The real dark horse of the Constructors championship in 1997. The chassis seems to be a good one and the Mugen engine certainly doesn't lack in power or reliability, but this was also the case in 1996, so where's the difference? Tyres. Prost are the fastest of the Bridgestone shod teams and in dry testing have been amazingly close to the established top teams. The wet test are another story, with Prost (Ligier at the time) reporting that the grip was sufficient to allow Olivier Panis to brake at almost the same place he would in the dry. Always reliable and now fast, this seems to be the year for the team to break into the big time. Podium finishes are likely and if there's a wet race, a win is a distinct possibility.
Olivier Panis managed to rebuild his reputation in 1996 having been demolished by Martin Brundle in 1995. The former F3000 champion was given a new lease of life by his Monaco win and could be in line to taste more champagne in 1997 as a second or third place driver and a winner.
Shinji Nakano from Japan is an unknown entity in F1, arriving fresh from Formula Nippon (nee F3000). Testing times have been up to two seconds slower than his team-mate, and he shows little sign of getting any closer at the moment. Points are unlikely.
Paul's view:
On testing performances this is the Bridgestone team to watch in 1997. When wet
conditions prevail the team will certainly be one to watch. Their is a real possibility
of a win for Prost and Oliver Panis should be the driver to claim it. Shinji Nakano
comes from Formula Nippon, but will likely be found lacking next to the very
experienced Panis. Fifth in the constructors is well within their grasp.
Red Bull Sauber-Petronas Goodyear
Sauber are another team that promise much yet deliver little in terms of solid results. Two years with the Ford v10 did little for the team and because of this, the drivers could never quite manage to reach the level that I feel they could, bearing in mind the resources at the teams disposal. The 1997 chassis is an evolution of the 1996 car and based on the minimal testing so far, seems to be a big improvement. How much of this is down to the new engine is unknown. The biggest news of the Christmas period was, of course, the deal in which Ferrari have sold their 1996 v10 engines to Sauber, so badge as Petronas (in deference to their sponsor and technical partner). As this is to form the basis of the Petronas engine that Sauber will use into the next century, this could mark the dawn of a new era for the Swiss team. At this stage I cannot see much more than the odd fifth or sixth place finish this season.
Johnny Herbert survived his first year at Sauber well, getting very close to his respected team-mate Frentzen towards the end of the season. Johnny is possibly the best of the current British F1 drivers and with the right team could have been World Champion. Regardless, he is driving a Sauber in 1997 and hasn't got a lot to look forward to in terms of points. If other teams fall off the track however, don't count him out.
Nicola Larini was an unexpected part of the Sauber-Ferrari deal and, for me, possibly the best part. Larini is one of the drivers who has never really had a good chance to prove himself in F1 and short of a few races for Ferrari has never raced in even a half decent car. Always quick in F1 and the ITC, he is a gifted test driver and has masses of experience of the Ferrari v10 he will be using in 1997. Like Johnny, he cannot expect much, and I expect it may take a while for him to get back into the swing of F1 again.
Paul's view:
Just how will Sauber fare with the new Ferrari inspired Petronas engines? . A strong
driver paring in Johnny Herbert and Nicola Larini, should be in the favour of Herbert
as the season progresses. Points will be there but just how much will the Swiss team
will miss Frentzen remains to be seen.
Tyrrell-Ford Goodyear
Tyrrell have got split from long time driver Ukyo Katayama and engine supplier Yamaha and are hoping for better things in 1997. As always the Tyrrell team have designed a neat car and the customer Ford should provide them with the reliability they lacked last season. An unusual choice for a smaller team is their decision to stick with Goodyear rubber. Tyrrell are hoping that it will give them the edge over the other midfield teams in the end and if Goodyear manage to get their act together they may well be right. The drivers are talented (possibly the best young drivers in F1), but with the teams that are ahead of them, there seems to be only slim chance for points over the coming year.
Jos Verstappen is starting an F1 season for the fourth season in succession, yet still seems to drive like he has just arrived in Formula One. I do not doubt the Dutchman's speed, but he seems to make too many mistakes, and I suspect this is what has kept him out of a top line seat in 1997. If the car can get anywhere near the points, Jos is as likely as anyone to score, but it will be a lean year for him.
Mika Salo is, to my eyes at least, one of the best in F1 at the moment. Mika qualifies well, races well and rarely makes mistakes, yet due to the reliability problems of the 1996 failed to make much headway. Should have the better of his team-mate, and as with Jos, if the car can get into the points, he is as likely as anyone to take them.
Paul's view:
Like Jordan, the battle for the supremacy among the team-mates will be intense. Jos
Verstappen has to be much smoother and stay on the road this year, but facing Mika
Salo will be no easy task. Look for Salo to have the slight edge. Replacing the
hopelessly unreliable Yamaha with a customer Ford will have a power disadvantage,
but should allow Tyrrell to stay in the frame and snatch the occasional point.
Mild Seven Minardi-Hart Bridgestone
Minardi have been one of my favourite teams for the last few seasons, mainly due to their unfailing ability to turn out a neat chassis and not least because they have lasted where so many other small teams have fallen by the wayside. The looks neat and the new influx of money brought in by both Ukyo Katayama (Mild Seven) and the new shareholders should ensure a reasonable test program. Brian Hart produces great engines bearing in mind the budget he has and while his powerplant is not as good as most of the works engines it is certainly better than the customer Ford engine, which should give Minardi an advantage over their immediate competitors (Lola and Tyrrell). Points unlikely, but here's hoping.
Ukyo Katayama has been in need of a team change for a long time, and has stagnated at Tyrrell for the past season and a half. There is little denying his speed, but he has been known to push a little to hard a little too often, usually resulting in spins. It would be nice to see Ukyo doing well again, but I suspect that he is sliding out of F1.
Jarno Trulli is the latest "Big Thing" in F1. A multiple kart champion, 1996 was his first full season in cars and he won the German F3 championship (although he took longer than was expected). Tipped for a Benetton seat in 1998, Jarno will just be trying to gain experience in 1997, so I don't expect much.
Paul's view:
Stuck in the vicious circle of backmarkers, it is difficult to see Minardi making any
progress on the midfield teams. A strong young driver has arrived in the form of Jarno
Trulli and Ukyo Katayama is in what is likely to be his final year in Formula 1 and
must struggle to refind his form of 1994.
Stewart-Ford Bridgestone
If the amount of press inches a team got, related directly to track performance, Stewart would already be World Champions. The Stewart SF1 was the first of the new F1 cars to be launched and has been testing extensively during the last month and a half. Initial impressions are good, with both drivers doing well in the wet conditions at Barcelona, and Rubens Barrichello running well in the wet. How much of this performace is down to the chassis and how much down to the tyres is unknown, but they have already shown they will not be the flop many thought. Possibility of a point if they are lucky.
Rubens Barrichello like last season, is faced with the task of rebuilding his confidence and the new Stewart team could be the place to do it. Barrichello is quick, but seems to be very fragile mentally, and needs supporting by the team when things go wrong. If either of the drivers score, it will be Rubens.
Jan Magnussen has arrived on the scene for his first full F1 season, being hailed as the "New Senna". In recent tests, Magnussen has proven slower than Barrichello and added to the fact that he has just had the first serious racing accident of his career I suspect that he could a turn out to be a damp squib rather than the firecracker that people expect.
Paul's view:
Perhaps the hardest team to place in this years Championship. Without a doubt they
should be placed above Minardi or Lola, but they must make inroads into the solid
midfield of Arrows, Jordan, Prost, Sauber and Tyrrell. It is difficult to see Stewart
achieving anything more than regular point finishes in 1997. Rubens Barrichello will
have the edge early season, but once Jan Magnussen has found his feet he should be a
real threat to the Brazilian.
Mastercard Lola-Ford (Lola) Bridgestone
Lola have an enviable reputation in other formulae but as far as F1 goes they have had little success. The new team are planning to use the Ford Zetec-R v8 engines (as used by Forti in 1996) until their own engine comes online around 9 races into the season. Until this point, I suspect that they will be racing against the 107% cut-off on Saturdays rather than other teams. Almost no chance of points.
Ricardo Rosset had a solid if undistinguished season with TWR in 1996. Lack of testing and experience meant he was eclipsed by his team-mate Verstappen. The Lola team won't offer much to help him make a name for himself but he may be able to do enough to be noticed.
Vincenzo Sospiri arrives in F1 a year after winning the European F3000 championship (with Rosset as his team-mate). Older and more experienced than Rosset he should, after an initial period of settling in, prove to be the faster of the two.
Paul's view:
The second of the new teams for 1997 is looking shaky from the outset. Lola's
previous attempts in Formula 1 have been little short of disasters, and until the arrival
of the new in-house engines, they will find themselves struggling on customer Ford
power. Ricardo Rosset and Vincenzo Sospiri were team mates in 1995 in Formula
3000, and on that form, there will be little between them.